Everything screams CHIEFS
Normally we hate putting our hat in the football ring, but sometimes the odds are too good to resist. Bet recommendation is bet 0.5 units (0.5% of AUM) on Chiefs to win (moneyline or "ml").
SUPER BOWL FUTURES:
Before we get into the game analysis, we're stating for the record that Carolina to win the Super Bowl priced at 25:1 odds is mispriced; it should be about 11:1. For a small bet, we like this right now.
If you like Foles w/ the Eagles, 12:1 is also a mispricing of the strength of the Eagles defense.
Lastly, not as big a mispricing, but LA Rams at 9:1 is a good bet too.
Ok, back to the game at hand....
Why the Chiefs?
#1 Chiefs are the better team, almost entirely.
The Kansas City Chiefs are a better offense and special teams, and their defense isn't Super Bowl caliber but on par with Tennessee's whose defense is only SLIGHTLY better. When neither team has an overpowering defense, the better offense wins, and in this case it's KC.
#2 Coach is better
Andy Ried has a long history of performance. He's the pre-major Phil Mickelson of coaching, his teams have done rather well in the playoffs thru the years, EXCEPT when his team plays the eventual Super Bowl winner where he's had no luck. Do you think Tennessee looks like the eventual Super Bowl winner? Think not. Mularkey might be the greatest coach ever some day, but right now his career doesn't even match Belichick's pre-Patriots days. There's zero justification to believe Mularkey can pull off this game, and every reason to think Fandy can. We also think Fandy will get the benefit of the doubt with the refs, he's just a better story than his adversary.
#3 Kicker is better.
Both teams have pretty good kickers, but KC's Harrison Butker might be the best in the NFL. If the game is tight, and relies on made/missed kicks, you want Butker on your team making up those point differences.
Why we might be wrong...
#1 Injuries
KC is hurting in some maybe key areas.
C Mitch Morse is now out.
LB Dee Ford has been missed all season, from his strong 2016 10-sack season.
#2 WR Albert Wilson looks like he's going to play, but is questionable.
#4 WR De'Anthony Thomas is out with broken tibia, normally this wouldn't be so bad except backups are injured too like Chris Conley.
How does this compare to Tenn?
#1 RB DeMarco Murray is out. We don't value RBs much, so....
#1 CB Logan Ryan is questionable. If he's out, it's really great news for KC's depleted WR corps.
#3 CB LeShaun Sims is out. This IS great news for KC's WR corps.
#1 Def End on left side DaQuan Jones is out. SLIGHTLY good news for KC's front line.
Overall it's either a wash, or slight favor to KC, but injuries add doubt to any game call so it's a negative bc maybe the Center being out for KC ruins KC's offense?
#2 Refs
Can always go either way, and when they go against you, in the NFL it's tough winning.
#3 We are basketball guys, football ain't our thing. If we say this is a sure thing, you should probably discount that by half, at LEAST. Remember our LAST football pick, Leach's Wash State in the bowl game? yeah, that. If our record in football didn't stink this year, we go FOUR units (4% of AUM), but instead we keep it small bc our football acumen has been low, so 0.5% this game.
Good Luck Steemians!
#3 Any Given Sunday
Football's a wacky shaped ball, and therefore anything can happen, and sometimes does, to foil the best laid plans.