NFL Sunday: Cowboys are favored...why?

in sportsteem •  2 years ago

I'm taking Aaron Rodgers and the points in Dallas. Green Bay is getting 3.5 and, to be honest, I don't get it at all. The Cowboys are at home, and generally you figure a 3-point advantage for the home team... so this line is calling Dallas 6.5 points better on a neutral field? Why? Green Bay has the better record, the better offense by points scored, the better defense by points and yards allowed, and they've been better on third down on both sides of the ball.

Here's the matchup by DVOA, per Football Outsiders:

MetricGreen BayDallas
Offense10th15th
Defense15th24th
Total11th21st

I really considered taking the money line here, but the points seems like a lock to me so I'm going with the safe bet.

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