Bundesliga sports betting projections (16-18 March)

Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart

My Projected Odds:
Freiburg 2.66
Draw 3.48
VfB Stuttgart 2.97
Freiburg +0.5 1.51
VfB Stuttgart +0.5 1.60

Sportsbet Bitcoin Bookmaker
Freiburg 2.65
Draw 3.05
VfB Stuttgart 2.95
MARGIN: 104.42%

Value Report (10% adjusted Kelly):
Freiburg -0.02%
Draw -0.61%
VfB Stuttgart -0.03%

My goals scoring projections:
Probability of 1.5 goals or more 65.76%
Probability of 2.5 goals or more 39.08%
Probability of 3.5 goals or more 19.07%
Probability of 4.5 goals or more 8.62%

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Mainz 05

My Projected Odds:
Eintracht Frankfurt 1.75
Draw 4.58
Mainz 05 4.78
Eintracht Frankfurt +0.5 1.26
Mainz 05 +0.5 2.34

Sportsbet Bitcoin Bookmaker
Eintracht Frankfurt 1.62
Draw 3.80
Mainz 05 5.60
MARGIN: 105.90%

Value Report (10% adjusted Kelly):
Eintracht Frankfurt -1.17%
Draw -0.61%
Mainz 05 0.37%

My goals scoring projections:
Probability of 1.5 goals or more 80.70%
Probability of 2.5 goals or more 58.61%
Probability of 3.5 goals or more 36.22%
Probability of 4.5 goals or more 22.05%

Augsburg vs Werder Bremen

My Projected Odds:
Augsburg 2.04
Draw 4.07
Werder Bremen 3.78
Augsburg +0.5 1.36
Werder Bremen +0.5 1.96

Sportsbet Bitcoin Bookmaker
Augsburg 2.36
Draw 3.30
Werder Bremen 3.00
MARGIN: 106.01%

Value Report (10% adjusted Kelly):
Augsburg 1.15%
Draw -0.82%
Werder Bremen -1.03%

My goals scoring projections:
Probability of 1.5 goals or more 76.27%
Probability of 2.5 goals or more 52.19%
Probability of 3.5 goals or more 30.00%
Probability of 4.5 goals or more 16.53%

Hamburger SV vs Hertha Berlin

My Projected Odds:
Hamburger SV 2.48
Draw 3.71
Hertha Berlin 3.06
Hamburger SV +0.5 1.49
Hertha Berlin +0.5 1.68

Sportsbet Bitcoin Bookmaker
Hamburger SV 2.50
Draw 3.00
Hertha Berlin 3.05
MARGIN: 106.12%

Value Report (10% adjusted Kelly):
Hamburger SV 0.05%
Draw -0.96%
Hertha Berlin -0.01%

My goals scoring projections:
Probability of 1.5 goals or more 71.06%
Probability of 2.5 goals or more 45.36%
Probability of 3.5 goals or more 24.03%
Probability of 4.5 goals or more 11.81%

Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim

My Projected Odds:
Borussia M.Gladbach 1.96
Draw 4.41
Hoffenheim 3.82
Borussia M.Gladbach +0.5 1.35
Hoffenheim +0.5 2.05

Sportsbet Bitcoin Bookmaker
Borussia M.Gladbach 2.70
Draw 3.50
Hoffenheim 2.50
MARGIN: 105.61%

Value Report (10% adjusted Kelly):
Borussia M.Gladbach 2.24%
Draw -0.83%
Hoffenheim -2.30%

My goals scoring projections:
Probability of 1.5 goals or more 81.98%
Probability of 2.5 goals or more 60.59%
Probability of 3.5 goals or more 38.25%
Probability of 4.5 goals or more 22.92%

Wolfsburg vs Schalke 04

My Projected Odds:
Wolfsburg 2.62
Draw 3.90
Schalke 04 2.76
Wolfsburg +0.5 1.57
Schalke 04 +0.5 1.62

Sportsbet Bitcoin Bookmaker
Wolfsburg 3.60
Draw 3.20
Schalke 04 2.13
MARGIN: 105.98%

Value Report (10% adjusted Kelly):
Wolfsburg 1.44%
Draw -0.82%
Schalke 04 -2.03%

My goals scoring projections:
Probability of 1.5 goals or more 75.78%
Probability of 2.5 goals or more 51.52%
Probability of 3.5 goals or more 29.39%
Probability of 4.5 goals or more 15.26%

Borussia Dortmund vs Hannover 96

My Projected Odds:
Borussia Dortmund 1.46
Draw 5.26
Hannover 96 8.02
Borussia Dortmund +0.5 1.14
Hannover 96 +0.5 3.18

Sportsbet Bitcoin Bookmaker
Borussia Dortmund 1.43
Draw 4.80
Hannover 96 6.60
MARGIN: 105.91%

Value Report (10% adjusted Kelly):
Borussia Dortmund -0.47%
Draw -0.23%
Hannover 96 -0.32%

My goals scoring projections:
Probability of 1.5 goals or more 78.73%
Probability of 2.5 goals or more 55.68%
Probability of 3.5 goals or more 33.30%
Probability of 4.5 goals or more 21.69%

FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen

My Projected Odds:
FC Cologne 4.22
Draw 4.16
Bayer Leverkusen 1.91
FC Cologne +0.5 2.10
Bayer Leverkusen +0.5 1.31

Sportsbet Bitcoin Bookmaker
FC Cologne 4.30
Draw 3.85
Bayer Leverkusen 1.75
MARGIN: 106.37%

Value Report (10% adjusted Kelly):
FC Cologne 0.06%
Draw -0.26%
Bayer Leverkusen -1.14%

My goals scoring projections:
Probability of 1.5 goals or more 76.27%
Probability of 2.5 goals or more 52.19%
Probability of 3.5 goals or more 30.01%
Probability of 4.5 goals or more 15.01%

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Bayern Munich

My Projected Odds:
RasenBallsport Leipzig 5.41
Draw 4.06
Bayern Munich 1.76
RasenBallsport Leipzig +0.5 2.32
Bayern Munich +0.5 1.23

Sportsbet Bitcoin Bookmaker
RasenBallsport Leipzig 5.20
Draw 4.20
Bayern Munich 1.59
MARGIN: 105.93%

Value Report (10% adjusted Kelly):
RasenBallsport Leipzig -0.09%
Draw 0.11%
Bayern Munich -1.62%

My goals scoring projections:
Probability of 1.5 goals or more 69.91%
Probability of 2.5 goals or more 43.94%
Probability of 3.5 goals or more 22.86%
Probability of 4.5 goals or more 10.19%

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All odds are taken from Sportsbet (aff: https://underdogchance.com/sportsbet)
Note also, that this is not betting advice. All information and projections given out are for informational and entertainment purposes only. Always make your own research before you bet.

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⚽How I project those Bundesliga odds: https://gum.co/mYgAC

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MB