Week 7 NFL Daily Fantasy Football Analysis - Positions, Salaries, Projected Point Values, and Custom Rankings!

in #sports8 years ago (edited)

Only an hour until Thursday kickoff...let's crunch some numbers!

This week sees a ton of shakeups in the top ten. Specifically, Tom Brady. He has had enough awesome performances over these past two weeks to raise his overall performance curve to the point where he is a trusted #1 QB. DeMarco Murray is also an algorithm darling this week with an absolute GIFT of a matchup with the putrid Colts. And, fresh off his recent 40 point plus performance is OBJ rounding out the top ten with about 20 projected fantasy points.

I really think this week there are a few clear plays that everyone will be making. Specifically, any player of value on the Bengals and the Patriots DST getting Landry Jones instead of Big Ben at the Steelers. The other value plays I think have to be derived from looking at individual position rankings.


Other New Sheriffs in Town

Tom Brady and Matt Ryan are the establishment at this point. I think at this point we can basically consider Ryan matchup proof after proving he could go on the road and put up significant points against the Seahawks. Both have phenomenal matchups this week. In a cash game, I don't believe you can go wrong either way.

Rounding out the top 10 are many usual suspects, but keep an eye out for Eli, Mariota, or even Jameis as possible GPP value plays this week. Of these, I cannot express how much I love Mariota's upside against a Colts DST that really isn't stopping anyone. Vontae Davis is the only defensive threat for the Colts, but he is out wide. They can't stop the run, can't stop the short passing game, and are specifically vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks that can make plays. A Mariota/Walker/Murray stack would be an interesting home run strategy this week.

Looking for someone outside the top 10? I like Brian Hoyer sitting at $5900 against a Packers D that allows quarterbacks significant passing yardage.


Who do you trust more in the timeshare? Charles or Ware?

I trust Ware. The algorithm loves both. You have to figure the public will be all over any Chiefs running back with a favorable matchup at home against the Saints.

My favorite play of this entire bunch is Giovani Bernard, but it could be chalky as everyone is playing lineups with players drawing the Browns. You could argue the same about Murray, but his upside is so high, I think you have to have him. Arian Foster is ignorable at this point, and I would only play at your own peril.


If it was against a net, he would be projected for 75!

OBJ is my clear number one this week, but the top of the list is a bit muddled with high value high salary guys. For what you can get for OBJ, you could potentially get more with Allen Robinson or AJ Green this week at less salary. A super sneaky play would be Randall Cobb, potentially getting RB points with seemingly every Packers RB out with an injury tonight.


You want guys going against these awful D's:

Everyone probably knows it at this point, but if you haven't yet figured it out these are the worst fantasy defenses in football, along with how they rank by percentile on a curve compared to the rest of the league. All are in the bottom 10%, and for the first time I have ever seen, a team is in the bottom 1%. The Saints have to be an all time best fantasy matchup at this point. Really, you can't go wrong playing guys against any of these teams at this point.


The Excel Solver Optimal Lineup -

This is heavy on the Giants, and strong on value plays. I would be absolutely shocked if Donnell produces, but I've had crazier things happen with these projections. Pierre Garcon is also surprising, but he has been seeing a steep increase in targets recently, and the algorithm loves his red zone potential.


Want to use the solver?

You can too! It can be found here, in a shared file through Dropbox.

This is a tool you can use to project an optimal lineup for Week 7 with my custom rankings and Draft Kings salaries. It uses Microsoft Excel's built in Solver feature that will calculate optimal conditions given a certain amount of inputs. You will need to download and use with Excel on your desktop.

Feel free though to play around with your own custom players and point values, this is your sandbox! Just remember to follow the instructions provided on the sheet to use and reset each time.


REMEMBER, THIS IS NOT ADVICE ON WHAT TO DO WITH YOUR MONEY!

I do not in any way endorse you gambling solely with this information. This is for your mathematical enjoyment only!

My Top QB's:

RankChangePlayerPosTeamOppMyModelSalaryOppDefRank
1+8Tom BradyQBNEPIT22.9790023
2+12Matt RyanQBATLSD21.8720024
3+10Andrew LuckQBINDTEN21.7700016
4-1Drew BreesQBNOKC21.2740010
5+15Eli ManningQBNYGLA20.7610027
6-1Aaron RodgersQBGBCHI20.5710014
7+8Andy DaltonQBCINCLE20.5600029
8+4Blake BortlesQBJAXOAK20.4620031
9N/AJameis WinstonQBTBSF19.8590026
10+6Marcus MariotaQBTENIND19.8600030
11+8Philip RiversQBSDATL19.7650018
12+11Kirk CousinsQBWASDET19.3590028
13-6Matthew StaffordQBDETWAS19.2640012
14+7Brian HoyerQBCHIGB19.0590022
15-11Alex SmithQBKCNO19.0610032
16-10Russell WilsonQBSEAARI18.867004
17-6Joe FlaccoQBBALNYJ18.4580017
18-8Derek CarrQBOAKJAX18.3630013
19+10Colin KaepernickQBSFTB17.2530021
20+8Case KeenumQBLANYG16.8520020
21-3Carson PalmerQBARISEA16.457009
22-14Tyrod TaylorQBBUFMIA16.355005
23-6Ryan TannehillQBMIABUF15.551008
24N/ASam BradfordQBMINPHI14.551006
25N/ACody KesslerQBCLECIN13.5500019
26N/AGeno SmithQBNYJBAL13.5500015
27-1Trevor SiemianQBDENHOU13.252002
28-6Carson WentzQBPHIMIN13.052003
29-2Brock OsweilerQBHOUDEN10.051001
30N/ALandry JonesQBPITNE6.4500011

My Top RB's:

RankChangePlayerPosTeamOppMyModelSalaryOppDefRank
10DeMarco MurrayRBTENIND21.4720030
2+1LeSean McCoyRBBUFMIA18.276005
3+8Spencer WareRBKCNO17.5580032
40Le'Veon BellRBPITNE17.3800011
50David JohnsonRBARISEA16.474009
6+1Jamaal CharlesRBKCNO16.1570032
7+9Giovani BernardRBCINCLE15.7480029
8+1Devonta FreemanRBATLSD15.5590024
9-7Arian FosterRBMIABUF15.042008
100Todd GurleyRBLANYG14.9630020
11+7Rashad JenningsRBNYGLA14.3420027
12+18Melvin GordonRBSDATL14.1640018
13-7Mark IngramRBNOKC14.1540010
14+21Frank GoreRBINDTEN13.5470016
15+16Matt JonesRBWASDET13.5420028
16+4Jordan HowardRBCHIGB13.4600022
17-5Lamar MillerRBHOUDEN13.360001
18+14Terrance WestRBBALNYJ13.3480017
19-6Matt ForteRBNYJBAL13.1500015
20-5Carlos HydeRBSFTB12.4560021
21+20Jeremy HillRBCINCLE12.4400029
22+17Chris IvoryRBJAXOAK12.4340031
23+6LeGarrette BlountRBNEPIT12.3490023
24+3Tevin ColemanRBATLSD12.1490024
25-3TJ YeldonRBJAXOAK12.1410031
26N/ADoug MartinRBTBSF11.7610026
27+18James WhiteRBNEPIT11.4460023
28+10Jay AjayiRBMIABUF11.245008
29-15Theo RiddickRBDETWAS11.1520012
30-7Christine MichaelRBSEAARI10.967004
31N/AJacquizz RodgersRBTBSF10.6430026
32+4Isaiah CrowellRBCLECIN10.5400019
33+22Duke JohnsonRBCLECIN10.4390019
34-6Charcandrick WestRBKCNO10.2300032
35-1Latavius MurrayRBOAKJAX10.1440013
36+17Bobby RaineyRBNYGLA9.9320027
37N/AJustin ForsettRBDETWAS9.6330012
38+27Chris ThompsonRBWASDET9.3310028
39-15Darren SprolesRBPHIMIN9.138003
40-19CJ AndersonRBDENHOU8.562002
41N/AJerick McKinnonRBMINPHI8.143006
42-2Bilal PowellRBNYJBAL7.8370015
43-10DeAngelo WilliamsRBPITNE7.6390011
44N/AMatt AsiataRBMINPHI7.535006
45-20Ryan MathewsRBPHIMIN7.139003
46N/AMike DavisRBSFTB7.0300021
47-4Andre EllingtonRBARISEA6.830009
48+8Derrick HenryRBTENIND6.6310030
49+21Paul PerkinsRBNYGLA6.5300027
50+9Benjamin CunninghamRBLANYG6.4300020
51+9Deandre WashingtonRBOAKJAX6.2390013
52+9Javorius AllenRBBALNYJ6.2300017
53-6Tim HightowerRBNOKC6.1300010
54N/ADamien WilliamsRBMIABUF6.130008
55-7CJ SpillerRBSEAARI6.139004
56N/ARob KelleyRBWASDET6.0300028
57+9Shaun DraughnRBSFTB5.9300021
58-6Travaris CadetRBNOKC5.7300010
59+12Dexter McClusterRBSDATL5.6320018
60N/AKnile DavisRBGBCHI5.5300014
61N/AKa'Deem CareyRBCHIGB5.4300022
62-5Mike GillisleeRBBUFMIA5.430005
63-13Jalen RichardRBOAKJAX5.0360013
64N/ARobert TurbinRBINDTEN5.0300016
65N/AJosh FergusonRBINDTEN4.6300016
66N/ABrandon BoldenRBNEPIT4.4300023
67N/AKenneth DixonRBBALNYJ4.1300017
680Alex CollinsRBSEAARI4.030004
69-7Dwayne WashingtonRBDETWAS3.9380012
70-6Wendell SmallwoodRBPHIMIN3.630003
71N/ADaniel LascoRBNOKC3.5300010
72-23Devontae BookerRBDENHOU3.037002
73-22Alfred BlueRBHOUDEN2.430001

My Top WR's:

RankChangePlayerPosTeamOppMyModelSalaryOppDefRank
1+6Odell Beckham JrWRNYGLA19.9890027
2+3Julio JonesWRATLSD19.7920024
3-2Antonio BrownWRPITNE19.0930011
4N/AMike EvansWRTBSF18.6780026
5+6AJ GreenWRCINCLE18.1860029
6+3Allen RobinsonWRJAXOAK17.4730031
7+9TY HiltonWRINDTEN16.9770016
8+2Jordy NelsonWRGBCHI15.7780014
9-6Demaryius ThomasWRDENHOU15.663002
10-4Jeremy MaclinWRKCNO15.5670032
11-7Brandon MarshallWRNYJBAL15.4760015
12+30Terrelle PryorWRCLECIN15.0620019
13+8Randall CobbWRGBCHI14.9580014
14+3Amari CooperWROAKJAX14.9790013
15-13Emmanuel SandersWRDENHOU14.466002
16N/ASteve SmithWRBALNYJ14.0550017
17+17Allen HurnsWRJAXOAK13.8500031
18+35Pierre GarconWRWASDET13.8370028
19+11Alshon JefferyWRCHIGB13.6690022
20+21DeSean JacksonWRWASDET13.6570028
21-13Larry FitzgeraldWRARISEA13.371009
22+7Brandon LaFellWRCINCLE13.2390029
23-9Michael CrabtreeWROAKJAX13.0660013
24-2Julian EdelmanWRNEPIT12.9650023
25-6Jarvis LandryWRMIABUF12.968008
26-14Doug BaldwinWRSEAARI12.864004
27+19Kenny BrittWRLANYG12.8430020
28-10Marvin JonesWRDETWAS12.6700012
29-6Brandin CooksWRNOKC12.5750010
30-5Golden TateWRDETWAS12.4490012
31-7Anquan BoldinWRDETWAS12.2400012
32+32Kendall WrightWRTENIND12.1370030
33+26Victor CruzWRNYGLA11.5390027
34+13Eddie RoyalWRCHIGB11.3420022
35+4Mike WallaceWRBALNYJ11.2580017
36-23DeAndre HopkinsWRHOUDEN11.269001
370Rishard MatthewsWRTENIND11.1360030
38+31Cameron MeredithWRCHIGB11.1470022
39+46Jamison CrowderWRWASDET10.9430028
40-20Jordan MatthewsWRPHIMIN10.856003
41+4Andre JohnsonWRTENIND10.8310030
42+32Marqise LeeWRJAXOAK10.8320031
43-15Tavon AustinWRLANYG10.7400020
44-9Jeremy KerleyWRSFTB10.7400021
45-9John BrownWRARISEA10.646009
46-15Willie SneadWRNOKC10.4590010
47+36Mohamed SanuWRATLSD10.2440024
48+9Torrey SmithWRSFTB10.2380021
49+22Sterling ShepardWRNYGLA10.1510027
50-6Travis BenjaminWRSDATL10.1610018
51+3Brian QuickWRLANYG10.1320020
52-14Michael ThomasWRNOKC9.8470010
53-10Chris ConleyWRKCNO9.7350032
54-28Robert WoodsWRBUFMIA9.642005
55-3Sammie CoatesWRPITNE9.6510011
56N/AStefon DiggsWRMINPHI9.460006
57N/ADonte MoncriefWRINDTEN9.4530016
58+26Tyrell WilliamsWRSDATL9.3440018
59+28Dontrelle InmanWRSDATL9.0330018
60-10Albert WilsonWRKCNO9.0300032
61-10Michael FloydWRARISEA8.939009
620Tajae SharpeWRTENIND8.7350030
63+30Tyler BoydWRCINCLE8.5300029
64-6Tyreek HillWRKCNO8.4300032
65N/AAdam HumphriesWRTBSF8.1300026
66+2Markus WheatonWRPITNE8.1340011
67+9Chris HoganWRNEPIT8.1480023
68+33Adam ThielenWRMINPHI7.937006
69-42Will FullerWRHOUDEN7.957001
70-4Devante ParkerWRMIABUF7.945008
71+4Seth RobertsWROAKJAX7.8300013
72N/ATy MontgomeryWRGBCHI7.6300014
73-10Kenny StillsWRMIABUF7.531008
74-13Jermaine KearseWRSEAARI7.530004
75+6Quincy EnunwaWRNYJBAL7.3460015
76+10Danny AmendolaWRNEPIT7.2350023
77+15Quinton PattonWRSFTB7.2300021
78N/ARyan GrantWRWASDET7.1300028
79-19Eli RogersWRPITNE7.0350011
80N/AArrelious BennWRJAXOAK6.8300031
81N/ACordarrelle PattersonWRMINPHI6.732006
82+16Justin HardyWRATLSD6.7300024
83N/ARashad RossWRWASDET6.4300028
84+13Phillip DorsettWRINDTEN6.4410016
85+3Andre HolmesWROAKJAX6.3300013
86N/AChester RogersWRINDTEN6.2300016
87-8Tyler LockettWRSEAARI6.037004
88-21Justin HunterWRBUFMIA6.030005
89-16Dorial Green-BeckhamWRPHIMIN5.830003
90+6Breshad PerrimanWRBALNYJ5.4350017
91-21Nelson AgholorWRPHIMIN5.431003
92+11Charles JohnsonWRMINPHI4.430006
93-4Paul RichardsonWRSEAARI4.430004
94-14Marquise GoodwinWRBUFMIA4.030005
95-30Jaelen StrongWRHOUDEN3.730001
96-5Josh HuffWRPHIMIN3.630003
97-15Walter PowellWRBUFMIA3.230005
98-4Bennie FowlerWRDENHOU3.130002
99-9Braxton MillerWRHOUDEN2.930001
1000James WrightWRCINDAL2.930007
1010Adam ThielenWRMINHOU2.831002
1020Jarius WrightWRMINHOU2.630002
1030Charles JohnsonWRMINHOU1.730002
1040Eric WeemsWRATLDEN0.130001

My Top TE's:

RankChangePlayerPosTeamOppMyModelSalaryOppDefRank
1+3Rob GronkowskiTENEPIT15.4720023
2+7Jordan ReedTEWASDET14.3600028
3-1Travis KelceTEKCNO13.6530032
4+2Martellus BennettTENEPIT13.3450023
5-2Delanie WalkerTETENIND12.2490030
6-1Jimmy GrahamTESEAARI12.258004
7+6Julius ThomasTEJAXOAK11.3390031
8+6Tyler EifertTECINCLE11.2440029
9-2Coby FleenerTENOKC10.8380010
10+6Zach MillerTECHIGB10.8380022
11+12Antonio GatesTESDATL10.7290018
12+10Larry DonnellTENYGLA10.7260027
13+4Gary BarnidgeTECLECIN10.5320019
14+23Hunter HenryTESDATL10.1360018
15+32Vernon DavisTEWASDET9.7290028
16N/AKyle RudolphTEMINPHI9.535006
17N/ACameron BrateTETBSF9.0290026
180Dennis PittaTEBALNYJ9.0400017
19+1Anthony FasanoTETENIND8.9250030
20-5Crockett GillmoreTEBALNYJ8.5250017
21-11Eric EbronTEDETWAS8.5300012
22-14Charles ClayTEBUFMIA8.430005
23+3Lance KendricksTELANYG8.2270020
24+15Will TyeTENYGLA7.2250027
25-13Zach ErtzTEPHIMIN7.134003
26+14CJ UzomahTECINCLE7.0250029
27-3Demetrius HarrisTEKCNO6.9250032
28+18Marcedes LewisTEJAXOAK6.9250031
29+24Jack DoyleTEINDTEN6.7250016
300Dwayne AllenTEINDTEN6.6290016
31-6Richard RodgersTEGBCHI6.6280014
32N/ALevine ToiloloTEATLSD6.4270024
33+18Jacob TammeTEATLSD6.1280024
34+14Tyler KroftTECINCLE6.0250029
350Vance McDonaldTESFTB5.9250021
36-2Austin Seferian-JenkinsTENYJBAL5.9250015
37-10Jesse JamesTEPITNE5.7310011
38N/ALuke StockerTETBSF5.2250026
39+2Garrett CelekTESFTB5.2250021
40-12Jermaine GreshamTEARISEA5.225009
41+1Mychal RiveraTEOAKJAX5.1250013
42-11Jordan CameronTEMIABUF4.926008
43N/ALadarius GreenTEPITNE4.7250011
44N/AAustin HooperTEATLSD4.6250024
45N/AJosh HillTENOKC4.3250010
46-25CJ FiedorowiczTEHOUDEN4.225001
47N/ALogan PaulsenTECHIGB4.1250022
48-16Dion SimsTEMIABUF4.125008
490Clive WalfordTEOAKJAX4.1250013
50N/AClay HarborTEDETWAS3.8250012
51-15Darren FellsTEARISEA3.625009
52N/AErik SwoopeTEINDTEN3.4250016
53-20Virgil GreenTEDENHOU3.427002
54-35Ryan GriffinTEHOUDEN3.125001
55-12Brent CelekTEPHIMIN3.125003
56N/AXavier GrimbleTEPITNE2.8250011
57N/ATrey BurtonTEPHIMIN2.525003
58N/ADominique JonesTEMIABUF2.325008
59N/ALogan PaulsenTECHIJAX3.2300013
60N/AMarQueis GrayTEMIATEN2.7250016
61N/AGeoff SwaimTEDALCIN1.9250019
62-17Stephen AndersonTEHOUMIN1.925003
63N/AAustin HooperTEATLDEN1.725001
64N/ALevine ToiloloTEATLDEN1.225001
65-13Cole WickTEDETPHI0.425006
66N/AMyCole PruittTEMINHOU0.125002

My Top DST's:

Bye Weeks - DAL, CAR

RankChangeTeamPercentile
1+1DEN0.983
2-1HOU0.921
3+2MIN0.876
4+6ARI0.788
5+11MIA0.741
6-3PHI0.721
7+1DAL0.714
8+1BUF0.708
9-5SEA0.706
10+3KC0.700
11+1NE0.679
12+17WAS0.660
13-7JAX0.631
14-3CHI0.577
150BAL0.539
16-2TEN0.531
170NYJ0.510
18+5ATL0.383
19-12CIN0.333
20-1NYG0.294
21-3TB0.288
22-2GB0.288
23+2PIT0.251
24-2SD0.250
25-4CAR0.097
26+5SF0.095
27+1LA0.085
28-1DET0.080
29-3CLE0.080
30-6IND0.062
31-1OAK0.056
320NO0.008

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I am not participating in the tournament but I recognize @ team-leibniz the grantrabajo you do to communicate these results, hard work congratulations

Thank you so much! I have a lot of fun doing it and I am learning so much more every week!

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