Week 2 College Football Public Plays Report
If you gamble on sports, then you are always looking to learn something. Always searching for the extra edge against the man. One tool that I like to use is checking who the public is on with the line moving against them. This can be a sign of the "Sharp" money being on the other team. While not the end all be all, I do use it as a gauge.
The problem is in getting an accurate measurement on public betting trends. I monitor thru scripts a few websites that have public betting percentage information. I then average these numbers to come up with a best guess. If the numbers are off by more than 10%, I take it off the radar completely. I never use these numbers to blindly bet, but use it to narrow down a field of of a lot of games to a few to dig into.
Based on the numbers so far, the following games for tomorrows slate stand out to me:
- Hawaii at UCLA
- Game opened with a total of 65. Line has been bet down to 64 with about 85% of bets on the over. There is probably not alot of volume on this game, and definitely not a ton of movement, but is intriguing to me.
- Tulane at Navy
- Total opened at 54.5, and has droppped to 48.5, with a best guess of 80% of bets on the over. Quite alot of movement against the public. Something moved this line. Danger always is has it moved past the point due to steam, or people chasing the "Sharp Money". I highlighted this game and will be watching the total up until kickoff.
- Oklahoma at Ohio State
- Line opened at Ohio State -5.5 and has been bet up to -7.5. This crossed the magic number of 7, all the while with Oklahoma getting 59% of the bets. Now Ohio State does have a huge following, so I would expect to see Ohio State in the lead. Really like Ohio State -7.5 even though I would much rather have less than 7. Only guess is models believe in Ohio State more than the eye test of the first half against Indiana last week.
- Minnesota at Oregon State
- Being PJ Fleck definitely has the public believing as Minnesota is getting about 70% of the bets on a road game. Problem is the money has moved the line from opening Minnesota -1 and has flipped the favorite to Oregon State -2.5. This is my favorite game of the weekend based on this and my model. Put a little bitcoin on this one and here is my proof, My Nitrogen Sports Betslip.
Fade or Follow at your own risk. I do not sell picks. I do not tout. Buying sports selections is a complete waste of money. I share my favorite picks to show that I do bet them. I do not bet big, but I love to gamble and bitch about bad beats.
This is a pretty solid approach and might get you some good wins. At least you are tuning in to what the market is saying so you might not be far off going semi-pro. I'm following so will see how you go. No shame in selling tips if your half decent tipster. Plenty of shit ones around though.
Tipsters are like used car salesman, just my opinion. If anyone can hit 53% or more over the long haul, there is absolutely no reason to sell their picks. They pretty much have a license to print money. Problem 99.99% of punters have is they do not have proper money management. To bet $100 a game, you need $10,000 minimum in my opinion. Could bore people with statistics, but risk of ruin is high with the slim edge one may have over the house with less than 100 units in bankroll.
Thanks for the follow, I just post a few of my picks when it fits what I feel like writing about. I would rather talk about game theory and modeling than who i picked. I think how one gets to the conclusion is much more important than the conclusion. But that could be just as wrong as my pick.
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I hear you but you have to understand what the other side of the fence is like. For a pro like me it can be hard to get on. Most bookies shut you down as soon as you have a few good wins and they realise your a threat. Bet limits are a problem too and there isnt always liquidity in the most exotic markets on bet exchanges like betfair. So I like to get on as much as I can and then if I can get a few more dollars sharing or selling tips it doesnt hurt me. It actually helps because the market will move in my favour which gives me the ability to trade or hedge if things turn. Most amateurs seem to think the betting markets are a bottomless pit of money for pros but they arent.
Love it, and also gonna follow up on this and see how the picks do! Good luck :)