Luck VS Judgement - A Trixie Challenge - Day 14

marcusbraeburn (60)in #sports • 6 years ago

I am apparently an ‘over-brusher’. The dentist told me this morning, her soft Irish lilt reprimanding me as her light blue eyes burned into my soul. I’m sorry, so so sorry. As an adult the dentist is the only place where I feel I am being told off. At school the reports always said I could try harder, now apparently I am trying to much.

If one can ‘over-brush’ then what else can one over-do that on the face of it appears to be a good idea? Have you been over-washing again Brian? Jeanette’s not well, she’s been over-eating kale and pumpkin seeds. Steve, yeah, Steve literally mindfulnessed himself to death, he became so acutely mindful that his brain shut down and his heart stopped.

Perhaps though, and this has long been my suspicion, one can over-think when it comes to the horses. Recently I began making a record of every horse with 8 or more tips in the Racing Post. You would be entitled to think that the strike rate on said horses would be pretty decent, over 50% maybe, you would of course be wrong (try 29%)* and these are the supposed experts. If those guys, who are paid a healthy wage to study horses all day long can’t pick winners then what hope does anyone else really have?

It is for these reasons that I believe in percentages. Find a strategy, stick to it and sooner or later it will either be your day or it won’t. Course and distance winner? Great. Adam Kirby booked for the ride? Even better. No odds-on favourite (apparently) likely to romp home? Even better.

Back at the dentist, I promised Chloe that I would stop over-brushing and cease immediately my habitual under-flossing. Could try harder meets trying too hard. Left against right. Pure luck versus over-thinking. The truth, as ever, lies somewhere squarely in the middle.

*Nb. Admittedly this is only a five day sample but it still seems pretty piss poor, especially as only one of the fifteen winners had an SP above evens.

Here’s @happyaslarry, rambling on about today’s lucky selections:

”Yesterday I sat on the train next to a girl with a short skirt. There was a horse running called Short Skirt. I shortlisted Short Skirt but didn’t back it. It won. Last night on the train I saw someone I know called Carl. Not making that mistake again! Clearly, if Looking For Carl wins then train connections are the way forward. Foxy Boy, as per previous fox related names, I once lived in a street with the word ‘fox’ in it. And so once, I backed a horse wih the word fox in it. That horse romping home along with a 25/1 winner in a double made for one of the greatest great gaffer days out at Great Leighs. And finally, since starting to share my poetry, the poet horses have been winning. In fact yesterday, Whenapoet, shortlisted but not selected, placed at 20/1. Not making that mistake again!”

Luck