Why a Longshot Will Win the 2017 Preakness

This year's Kentucky Derby was supposed to be a wide open race. We kept hearing that all the top horses were vulnerable. This was the year that the streak of favorites winning the race was going to be broken. We were going to have another longshot, like Mine That Bird or Giacomo.

However, when Always Dreaming crossed the finish line in first place, the streak of favorites winning the Derby extended to five straight years. If you wagered $2 on the winner, you profited $9. Not bad, but with 20 horses in the race it is tough to back a horse paying less than 5-1 odds.

Always Dreaming, several of the Derby also rans, and a few new shooters will converge in Baltimore for the second jewel of the Triple Crown, The Preakness, on May 20. Historically, the Derby winner fares well in the Preakness. Derby winners have won seven of the last fifteen Preakness Stakes. A couple of non-Derby runners have won a couple of Preakness Stakes over the last fifteen tries (Rachel Alexandra and Bernardini). The other six winners during this timeframe came from Derby non winners.

This would lead us to focus our win bets on Always Dreaming or maybe one of the other Derby horses: Looking at Lee (2nd in the Derby), Classic Empire (4th), Gunnervera (7th), or Hence (11th). This strategy would have given us the winner thirteen of the last fifteen winners.

Not so fast. To find the winner of this year's Preakness we need to go back to late March and look at a second-tier Derby prep race in New Mexico: the Sunland Derby. Usually, this race has little impact on the Derby or other Triple Crown Races. Hence won the race, followed by Conquest Mo Money, Hedge Fund, and then Irap. Hence earned a fast speed figure (the fastest last race speed figure leading into the Derby), but not much was made of this race.

Until, Irap came back and won the Blue Grass Stakes. Then, a week later Conquest Mo Money returned to the track and ran second in the prestigious Arkansas Derby to 2-yr old champion, Classic Empire. Finally, Hedge Fund ran a gutsy second to Multiplier in the second-fastest Illinois Derby ever run.

Clearly, the Sunland Derby was a key Derby prep. Unfortunately, the wet track at Churchill Downs on Derby day, a crowded twenty-horse field with a lot of bumping, and a clear inside bias didn't allow Hence and Irap to shine. Classic Empire (who beat Conquest Mo Money in the Bluegrass) snuck in for fourth place in the Derby. Conquest Mo Money and Multiplier didn't run in the Derby, but are scheduled to race in the Preakness. Multiplier comes into the race with the fastest last race speed figure.

We are going to play a "Sunland Trifecta" in the Preakness and play the Sunland horses (Hence and Conquest Mo Money) along with the horses who beat Sunland horses in other prep races (Classic Empire and Multiplier). We'll throw in the Derby winner. Box: Always Dreaming, Hence, Conquest Mo Money, Classic Empire, and Multiplier,

Our win bet is on the longshot Multiplier. He will go off around 20-1. He has the fastest speed figure in his last race.

Maybe Always Dreaming is the real deal. Maybe he will win the Triple Crown. However, our bet is that he got a dream trip in the Derby and will be over bet. He is going to get caught up in a faster pace than he saw in the Derby on a dry and fair track. He is going to fade. The fresh Multiplier will charge late to win. The Sunland horses and Classic Empire will pick up the pieces.

Photo: I took this at the Illinois Derby. Multiplier (#1) edges Hedge Fund at the finish.