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RE: 2017-18 NBA Elo Ratings Season Analysis: The 60's
Felt I needed to add this... The area I'm really digging into is the effect that WinProb has on totals. The essential question is: does the strength of the two teams involved in the contest have a correlation to the eventual total score of the game? Averages. Standard deviation. Etc. That answer may or may not seem obvious, but it's where I'm at in this moment...
I don't have much insight as to how the oddsmakers devise their totals, and I'm not foolish enough to think that I am smarter than any of them. I'm simply looking for trends that might be exploited.
Don't sell yourself short!
As far as I can tell, what the bookies do is: