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RE: 2017-18 NBA Elo Ratings Season Analysis: The 60's

in #sports7 years ago (edited)

Felt I needed to add this... The area I'm really digging into is the effect that WinProb has on totals. The essential question is: does the strength of the two teams involved in the contest have a correlation to the eventual total score of the game? Averages. Standard deviation. Etc. That answer may or may not seem obvious, but it's where I'm at in this moment...

I don't have much insight as to how the oddsmakers devise their totals, and I'm not foolish enough to think that I am smarter than any of them. I'm simply looking for trends that might be exploited.

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Don't sell yourself short!

As far as I can tell, what the bookies do is:

  1. calculate the totals based on the historic data
  2. (add factors that can move it up or down, say an injured star...)
  3. put the odds out and watch in horror the flow of stakes
  4. move them fast up/down when needed

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