RE: 2017-18 NBA Elo Ratings Season Analysis: The 60's
Thanks so much for the thoughtful and instructive reply. This is the sort of interchange I had hoped for.
I had initially attempted to bet using the Elo Spread Rating, solely, and that has had less than stelar results. In the NFL, it resulted in a small gain over many bets, but I really hadn't drilled deeper until late in the season. It's the associated WinProbability that I focused on later that hints at better performance.
Now, about 90 games into the NBA season using this 'improved' approach, up about 8 units, I hope that I'm finding some purchase. Only the weeks and months ahead will tell.
I'm hoping that as what I learned in the NFL season helped refocus my approach to the NBA, my NBA experience might inform an approach to the MLB. But who knows if the approach will be of anything, or better yet, if it's even transferrable between sports...
Thanks, again. I'll be looking into many of the aspects contained within your reply over the net few days. Much appreciated!
I have to warn you, don't go down the rabbit hole :)
Do look at the data, explore it,.... but don't expect it to give you a profitable strategy. Maybe that's my bitterness talking, having wasted years trying to beat up the data into giving me the secret to the profits :-)
After all that effort the most profitable strategy (for me) was:
The good ol' gut feeling outperforms scores of math and stats PhDs :) I know, I've read most of their papers on betting. The ones close to breaking even can't shut up about it :)
Since you're enjoying it and having fun with it, here's the simplest way to test if your strategy works consistently and it is not just a short lived anomaly:
Get the data for the last five seasons. Use the first four seasons as the training data and then see if the strategy you've created works as well for the fifth season. If it does work, you're onto something.