Betting Results using FiveThirtyEight.com ELO Ratings for NFL Football
Betting Results using FiveThirtyEight.com ELO Ratings for NFL Football
Some interesting results were uncovered backdating FiveThirtyEight.com ELO Ratings for NFL Football. I've found two betting patterns that equate to +6.586 units over the first four weeks of the NFL season, including Week 5's Patriots vs. Tampa Bay game. Overall, there are several lines that have been profitable every week, to date.
FiveThirtyEight.com describes its ELO Ratings as such: "Teams gain and lose ground based on the final score of each game and how unexpected the result was in the eyes of the pregame ratings... ELO is appropriately cautious early in the season; a team needs to prove itself to warrant a very high or very low rating. Combine that with the luck inherent in the NFL — the best teams don’t always win." - Credit: FiveThirtyEight.com.
I backtested their picks by building a database using their weekly ELO ratings, opening money lines, and game day results to show which betting patterns might be profitable. Here's the highlights of what I found, as well as Week 5 bets the system suggests I ought to make. ** Note, for this process I used 1 unit per game without any weighting for higher rated teams. **
Profitable Betting Lines
Each of the teams with an 80% or better ELO were 5-0. If bet, they resulted in + 0.94 Units total.
- Note, all five games were Home games with a -7 or higher ELO Point Spread.
Each of the teams between 60-69.9% ELO were 14-3. If bet, they resulted in +5.646 Units total.
- These teams were 9-3 at Home and 4-0 on the Road.
- They were 10-2 with an ELO Point Spread of 3.5 or higher, and 4-0 with an ELO Point Spread of -3.0 or lower.
Week 5 Suggested Bets based on this System
The model suggests betting these games based on their current ELO ratings and Opening Money lines:
- New England 61% vs. Tampa Bay 39%. Model suggests betting all teams between 60-69.9% ELO. (New England won 19-14)
- Pittsburgh 80% vs. Jacksonville 20%. Model suggests betting all teams with an 80% or better ELO.
- NY Jets 65% vs. Cleveland 35%. Model suggests betting all teams between 60-69.9% ELO.
- Philly 65% vs. Arizona 35%. Model suggests betting all teams between 60-69.9% ELO.
- Detroit 63% vs Carolina 37%. Model suggests betting all teams between 60-69.9% ELO.
- NY Giants 67% vs. LA Chargers 32%. Model suggests betting all teams between 60-69.9% ELO.
- Oakland 68% vs. Baltimore 32%. Model suggests betting all teams between 60-69.9% ELO.
- Kansas City 67% vs. Houston 33%. Model suggests betting all teams between 60-69.9% ELO.
Other Notes
Teams with an ELO rating between 70-79.9% were:
- 11-7 Straight Up. This resulted in -2.74 Units
- 9-5 with ELO Point Spread ratings of -7 or higher. This resulted in -0.46 Units.
- 8-5 at Home. This resulted in -2.102 Units.
I will be performing more number crunching to break up the 80%+ and 60-69.9% groupings to determine if there are more profitable ranges. I also intend to determine if there are some profitable Parlay lines to use based on this data. These calculations will be released in an upcoming post.
I will continue to update all of this results as the season progresses so long as profitable betting patterns can be uncovered.
I am also curious to backtest previous season results if time allows.
Please comment with your thoughts on this data, and let me know if you have any questions, or different angles on patterns you might be interested in seeing.
Interesting info,
You can try it out on my NFL Giveway Contest this week if you want.
Good luck !
Thanks! I just might give it a whirl!
Entered. Have a great Sunday!
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Here's this week's results:
New England - Win
Pittsburgh - Loss (First 80% team to lose this season.)
NY Jets - Win
Philadelphia - Win
Detroit - Loss
NY Giants - Loss
Oakland - Loss
Kansas City - Win
60% Teams went 4-3.