DFS DRAWING BOARD - NFL WEEK 6 - Running Backs
Welcome back to another position specific analysis of Week 6 of the NFL season. This article takes a dive into the running back position. In all honestly, there are so many different directions to play the RB position this weekend, it is going to be hard to narrow down to just a couple key guys. For the most part, my strategy will be to stick the middle tier priced backs to help fit in some of the more stud receivers available on the slate.
Last week I highlighted McCaffrey, Conner, Yeldon, and Breida as top recommend plays and each delivered. Conner had a massive 37.5 DK fantasy day while McCaffrey and Yeldon put up 20 and 26 respectively. Breida was unfortunately injured during the game but still managed to find the end zone. Overall we did quite well in terms of the RB position. Hopefully the trend continues this week.
Each week we take a step back to review the upcoming weeks matchups and crunch the numbers to develop a series of position specific articles related to top daily fantasy sports plays. Whether you are playing on FanDuel, DrafKings, or even configuring your season long NFL lineups, these articles should serve as a reference tool and helpful guide to choosing the best players. I've shortened these articles to give you only the necessities and bottom-line reasoning as to my top choices. This is a no bullshi*t article and by that I mean the players and plays I suggest are those that I will be using in my personal lineups. Nothing is excluded. We intend to win. The goal is to make great lineups, win money, and share our success stories. If you are new to my blog or daily fantasy sports in general, I encourage you to check out my DFS Introduction post which provides some general context on what DFS is and how to play. Spoiler alert, if you like playing fantasy sports and winning money, DFS is the platform for you. Also, if you haven’t already, feel free to follow my referral links and sign up for Fanduel and Draftkings. Each provides its own set of bonuses for new users.
With that being said, here are my top plays at the running back position for Week 6. Enjoy, upvote, and comment on your weekly outlook.
RUNNINGBACKS
Melvin Gordon - LA Chargers
$8,200 / at CLE / LAC - 1
I don't normally like recommending running backs on the road, especially those traveling basically across the country, but Melvin Gordon is one of the few elite backs I am willing to pay up for this weekend. Gordon has been solid all year long and already has 3 - 30 DK point performances to his name. He remains an integral part of the Chargers offense, both as a runner and in the passing game. Duel threat backs are always on my radar simply for their PPR upside. Gordon has 334 rushing yards this year and is averaging a healthy 4.3 yards a carry. He remains a safe play most weeks, even when the Chargers resort to pass heavy, as shown by the 261 yards he has accumulated through the air. Touches, targets, goal line work, red zone targets, Melvin Gordon offers everything you want out of a running back. That being said, he is also in a good matchup this week against the Browns. Cleveland has given up over 116 yards per game this season with an average of 4.1 yards per carry. They have also given up nearly 20 fantasy points per game to running backs ranking them within the bottom 10 in the league defending the position. All signs point in the right direction this weekend for Melvin Gordon against the Browns. Should you be looking to spend up at RB, I believe Gordon offers you a very steady safe option.
T.J. Yeldon - Jacksonville Jaguars
$6,400 / at DAL / JAX + 3
T.J. Yeldon continues to get all of the work out of the Jaguars backfield with Fournette still missing time due to injury. There is literally no other running back on their roster that is challenging him for time. In addition to Fournette, Corey Grant has also been ruled out for Week 6, leaving the backfield to Yeldon and just recently signed Jamaal Charles. I doubt Charles is up to speed yet, so we can expect Yeldon to get nearly all the RB usage. Although the Cowboys have been very respectable against the run this year, Yeldon's usage both as a runner and in the passing game makes him worth consideration. Last week Yeldon put up over 120 all purpose yards on 18 touches. He averaged over 5 yards a carry while also garnishing 10 targets. Even with their ability to stop the run game, the Cowboys defense still gives up their fair share of targets and receptions to RBs, something Yeldon excels at. On average, the Cowboys are allowing nearly 9 targets a game and over 7 catches per game to running backs. Yeldon offers predictability at the RB position and although his ceiling isn't as high as others, he should remain a reliable back in fantasy due to his usage and involvement in the passing game.
Tevin Coleman - Atlanta Falcons
$5,400 / vs. TB / ATL - 3
Devonta Freeman has been ruled out for Week 6, leaving the majority of the backfield duties to Coleman. The great news is that due to Freeman playing last week, Coleman's price has shot back down to a value based level. The only concern with the Atlanta backfield is that Ito Smith seems to be getting a lot of goal line work and stealing all of the TDs. In any case, Coleman again sets up as the lead back for an explosive Falcons offense this weekend against Tampa Bay. Tampa's defense this year in general has struggled to stop anyone and with no surprise, running backs are having a ton of success against them. The Buccaneers are giving up nearly 23 fantasy points per game to the RB position in 2018. Although the Bucs haven't given up a ton of yardage on the ground, mostly due to the fact teams are throwing all over them, they do give up nearly 4 yards a carry. Running backs are also having success out of the backfield against them as they are allowing an average of 9 targets a game to RBs. With Freeman sidelined, we can expect around 20 total touches for Coleman. At $5,400, Coleman could easily return value with or without a score.
Marshawn Lynch - Oakland Raiders
$5,300 / vs SEA (London) / OAK + 3
Sometimes you have to dig deeper than analytics to find the right guy. This play is more narrative than analytical. We have Marshawn vs. his former team. Beast Mode in London vs. the Seattle Seahawks. It doesn't get much better than that. There is little doubt in my mind Lynch is entering this game on a whole new level of Beast Mode. All that aside, Lynch is putting together a really good season in Oakland. At age 32, Lynch has put up 332 yards of rushing on a 4.3 yards per carry average while adding 3 scores. He hasn't lost any of the tenacity that awarded him the nickname Beast Mode and through the first 5 games, Lynch ranks #7 in the NFL with 21 broken tackles. The downside is play calling. Lynch needs the opportunity to grind out his totals and at times Oakland has simply given up on the run game. Just last week Lynch received 9 total carries which isn't going to get it done. He should continue to get all of the goal line work (should they decide not to throw on the 1 yard line), so his upside is more in line with 20+ carries and several opportunities to score. I like Lynch this week. I think Gruden recognizes what they have in him and his desire to run all over Seattle. Let the narrative play out. Just promise us one simple thing Oakland . . . if the ball is on the 1 yard line, give it to Lynch. Stop playing these games.
OTHER CONSIDERATIONS
Ronald Jones - $3,900 - Buccaneers
- Honestly one of my favorite plays this weekend but comes with high risk. Played in his 1st game as a pro in Week 5 and received 10 carries. Looks to be the best back in Tampa but workload remains a question. Atlanta has been giving up massive yardage totals to running backs, both on the ground and through the air. 15-20 touches could go a long way for under $4k.
Jordan Howard - $6,500 - Bears
- Not having the most productive year in terms of fantasy but lands in a great spot this weekend vs. Miami. If Chicago gets out in front, Howard could be productive with around 20 touches against a very weak Dolphins rushing defense. Surprisingly best games have come on the road this year.
Bilal Powell - $4,500 - Jets
- Becomes a great low cost play if Crowell sits out but ONLY IF CROWELL IS OUT. Jets would like to rely on the run with their young quarterback. Colts have been below average vs. the run. Fact of the matter is, if Powell becomes the lead back with Crowell missing, he should see plenty of usage vs. a weak run defense.
James Conner - $7,700 - Steelers
- One of the few expensive backs I am willing to pay for but only if I have salary. Conner looked great last week vs. Atlanta and will continue to be the only back in the Steelers backfield this weekend. Usage should remain high, both as a runner and receiver. Matchup is solid and Steelers present one of the best offensive lines should they stay committed to the run.
Sourced: LATimes.com / AtlantaFlacons.com / BroBible.com