Predicting economy in 1 year is quite complex. It will depend on may factors:

• How long do we need to keep the lock down? And will there be a second peak of infection once the lock down is over? In a year time we can hope for a vaccine to be available, however we might also discover that covid is seasonal like the flue.
• What will be the support plans for the economies? We started the crisis with already low interest rate, so monetary policy will be hard to leverage. Direct help from government will certainly be required.
• How did the lock down change the consumer behaviour? The lock down led to a development of home office and ecommerce; which could be nice growth opportunity. But it is too early if to say if those behaviour change swill stick afterwards.
• Will companies rethink their supply chain? The crisis showed the dependency of global supply chain to China. There was a raise of decentralise manufacturing and 3D printing to help with mask demands. If companies rethink their supply chains following this crisis, this will strongly impact the economy of industries heavy countries like China.

In a year time horizon I think the situation will be widly different betwen countries:

• Countries which were near full employment prior to the crisis like Germany & Czech Republic should be fully recover
• Countries with structural unemployment like France & Italie will see long lasting effect.
• Countries relying on tourism will hardly recover, if many hostel and touristic infrastructure bankrupt in the next month.