As technology is heating up, I imagine that we'll be pursuing both courses in parallel. Assuming that we're eventually going to colonize both locations in some order, different companies will pursue different targets. They'll start using robots to prepare shelters & irrigation on both outposts at the same time, then send people to whichever one is survival-ready first. My guess is that would be the moon for the reasons you have outlined in these posts, but I've been wrong before.