Football Statistics - xGoals

Football stats are my big hobby. I would like to introduce my favorite one - xGoals or expected goals - in this post.

How xGoals work?

Every shot has xGoals value. This value determines probability of scoring goal and is a combination of few factors. Crucial factors are the position of the shooting player, shoot by foot/head/ other parts of the body etc. According to historical stats, each factor has different importance in the model. The output is xGoal stats for both teams and for players.

Advantages of xGoals

The main advantage of xGoals is a more precise rating of offensive/defensive team skills. When we rate every shot, we can conclude how dangerous are they and how quality shots each team produce.

If the team xGoals number is high but only a few goals are scored, there is a high probability of improving team results. Of course, this logic as applicable vice-versa as well. When a team is scoring lucky goals from bad positions, there is a high chance of getting out luck sooner or later.

XGoals can also offer a clear picture of team performance in simple numbers. So there is no need for useless phrases of sports commentators and experts.

How xGoals charts looks like?

There are two basic ways to visualizexGoals. Shots maps and xGoals charts. I´m using the second one. I´m also adding few more stats to my charts and best-rated players (according to whoscored.com rating)

My charts looks like this:

Interested in more info?

If you´re interested, you can watch e.x. this nice introduction video by OPTA. You can also find more details on my blog.

If you wanna see more chart, just follow me.I´m working on xGoals charts for Serie A and I will be adding them here.

Jiri @frisbald Kaspar