English Premier League Goal Expectancies (Gameweek 21)
I thought it might be useful for any bettors/FPL players to share my goal expectancies for the EPL matches in GW21.
The numbers
The methods used to generate these are:
- Goals scored/conceded home/away last season + this season (weighted for % through season)
- Total shots and shots-on-target ratio (this season)
The GEs produced from the above methods are then averaged to give the above results.
Copy/pastable table version
Home | Away | Home GE | Away GE | Tot G | G Sup |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bournemouth | Everton | 1.293900405 | 1.290434322 | 2.584334727 | 0.003466083 |
Chelsea | Stoke | 2.285772403 | 0.7069628673 | 2.99273527 | 1.578809535 |
Huddersfield | Burnley | 0.9360998021 | 1.139195355 | 2.075295157 | -0.2030955524 |
Liverpool | Leicester | 2.254892347 | 0.9736108233 | 3.22850317 | 1.281281524 |
Newcastle | Brighton | 1.374897344 | 0.9686630193 | 2.343560363 | 0.4062343247 |
Watford | Swansea | 1.526352783 | 1.069680479 | 2.596033262 | 0.4566723033 |
Man United | Southampton | 2.000304175 | 0.6274536008 | 2.627757775 | 1.372850574 |
Crystal Palace | Man City | 0.8535495288 | 2.239158925 | 3.092708453 | -1.385609396 |
West Brom | Arsenal | 0.9882557464 | 1.371975082 | 2.360230828 | -0.3837193357 |
Summary
- My banker for this week is Chelsea at home to Stoke with a goal supremacy value of 1.578.
- I'm predicting the highest scoring game as Liverpool vs Leicester with a tot GE of 3.228.
- Bournemouth vs Everton looks a solid pick for a draw with only 0.003 GE between them!
I hope this comes in useful for some fellow Steemians, and I'm keen to hear from any other hobbyist predictors out there to see how similar our numbers are :).
Thanks for reading!
Adam (acelad)
@originalworks
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