English Premier League Goal Expectancies (Gameweek 25)

Here are my goal expectancies for EPL matches in GW25. I hope it proves useful to any bettors or FPL players out there :).

The numbers

The methods used to generate these are:

• Goals scored/conceded home/away last season + this season (weighted for % through season)
• Total shots and shots-on-target ratio (this season)

The GEs produced from the above methods are then averaged to give the above results.

Copy/pastable table version

Home	Away	Home GE	Away GE	Tot G	G Sup
Swansea	Arsenal	0.8833227651	1.649243356	2.532566121	-0.7659205905
West Ham	Crystal Palace	1.390188284	1.068713135	2.458901419	0.321475149
Huddersfield	Liverpool	1.014916504	2.163835604	3.178752107	-1.1489191
Chelsea	Bournemouth	2.129677051	0.6577146056	2.787391656	1.471962445
Everton	Leicester	1.592985401	1.282788927	2.875774328	0.3101964745
Newcastle	Burnley	1.08825012	1.018646678	2.106896797	0.06960344175
Southampton	Brighton	1.236716597	0.8700333595	2.106749956	0.3666832371
Man City	West Brom	2.528744894	0.5759685788	3.104713473	1.952776315
Stoke	Watford	1.455787344	1.463900047	2.91968739	-0.008112703
Tottenham	Man United	1.451451266	1.123409644	2.57486091	0.3280416225

Summary

• My banker for this week is Man City with a goal supremacy value of 1.95.
• I predict the highest scoring game to be Huddersfield vs Liverpool with a total Goal Expectancy of 3.17.
• Stoke vs Watford looks a likely draw with a Goal Supremacy value of -0.008.

Thanks for reading, and if you like this content and want to see more, please upvote and resteem!

Adam (acelad)