RE: TIL: It's Possible To Detect Cancer With Only ONE Drop Of Blood!
96% accuracy sounds good but is actually quite bad.
96% means that 4 in 100 cancer will not be detected, and having a "no cancer proof" other signs may be ignored. That even happens to doctors, as tests have shown.
96% also means that 4% of the tested will get the diagnosis of cancer even if they dont have it, including all the fear and stress and potentially invasive operations to proof that diagnosis.
In crime even an 99,99% accuracy in genetic tests have lead to people sentenced for crimes (and in the US killed with death sentence) they didn't do, because they had a similar DNA and were at the wrong place at the wrong time.
(Which btw. is the reason why you should not speak to police - the more they know, the more random connections they can create, and if they have a few they search for more to get you and not the real criminal. Thats just human - confirmation bias etc.)
yes you are right, 96% is not perfect and the liquid biopsy should not be seen as a replacement for any other pre-cancer tests. but it could be a quick solution , additionally to traditional screenings that are more invasive but also more secure!
A voice of reason.
If blood sampling becomes reasonably cheap, it may be of use in screening and monitoring.
If I get the 96% right, that concerns false-negative results, which you have elaborated on.
But there may also be false positives.
Which may be a great source of income to the odd cynic. Throw some screening at healthy patients, sponsor it if need be, then get a false positive, worry the patient out of his or her mind and then run expensive follow-up check like high-resolution MRT scans.
The patient will - at least in in the US - pay.
After all, as far as I can see, the results shout cancer without giving a location. Which in many cases would be like going to the police in New York and say, hej, I got terrible news. I know that there is a killer here in town. At least one.
But unless you have a location, this information has no value and the cops will shrug their shoulders.
And once you know the location, you do not need the blood test. So, the use of this method would be in screening unspecific symptoms or even healthy persons (depends on the price) and it all depends on the false-negative and the false positives...