Self Driving Cars - A Technology Destined For Failure
Self Driving Cars - A Technology For a Problem That Will Cease To Exist.
There has been a lot of hype about self driving cars. So much hype that it makes one notice... what are they pushing for? Because they are flat out ignoring technological advances that are much more important. Be leery of this push.
Self Driving Cars, to many, appear to be a god-send.
These people wish they were here right now, so that they could sleep, eat, apply make-up, browse the internet... on their boring and often stressful way to work. And, if things remained as they are, these AIs on wheels would be just the solution.
But, things are not remaining as they are.
The entire infrastructure of suburbia has been built around the automobile.
The parking lots, the large roads, the buildings set way back from the road.
Huge buildings, far apart. Malls. Strip malls. Fast food restaurants.
All built the way they are because of the automobile.
What if i told you that the automobile's days are numbered?
The paradigm of a self-driving car exists based on a few underlying reasons
- People must commute to work
- People live all spread out, but not too spread out, in suburbs.
- There are maintained roads everywhere.
But all of these reasons are changing.
- Factory automation is removing jobs.
- Working from home is removing commutes.
- Roads are not being maintained.
- The price of oil is making commuting more and more expensive.
- Cars, which used to be liberating / freeing, are now confining / detrimental.
- People are moving out of the (life sucking) suburbs.
So, the reasons for which the self-driving car is being built around are crumbling. And by my estimation, the self-driving car will get to the point of acceptance, just as the road infrastructure crumbles and no one commutes to work anymore.
The iron-triangle. car-job-house.
You have to have a house to live in.
You have to have a job to afford the house.
You have to have a car to get to the job.
If you lose any one of these three, if you fall below the stall-speed, your entire life crashes.
More and more people are noticing this. And reshaping their lives where they can walk to work/stores. Or they downsize their homes so they can pay them off completely, thus reducing the amount of income they need. Or they are going completely off the grid.
Downtown areas of stores with housing above them is making a come back. Walk or bike everywhere is in the design.
Rural farms are making a come back as people find they can work from anywhere, so why not be somewhere where they can have a garden and live as cheaply as possible?
The entire structure that created suburbs is going away. And thus, it is only a matter of time before the urban blight is abandoned. And with that, the need for self driving cars collapses too.
Interesting idea. I am not so sure and think there will be a future for the self driving car, with an entirely new system of controller on top.
Now we can just move wherever we want. In time this will be over and we have to ask for permission. If there is somethung against the elites interested happening somewhere, the cars might just refuse to drive there.
Seems crazy to us now but exactly the same happened to digital money
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Never thought about it like that. Indeed, in a more decentralized model the demand for self-driving cars (and cars in general) goes down.
Interesting, I believe cars will be forced into a different configuration, but I do not believe that their future is in danger.
On the roads, they must be maintained,or we starve, food flows on roads, and especially the big cities will starve quickly without regular delivery of foodstuff. So the roads must remain, or civilization collapses.
To the live downtown, and ride a bike, will Not work. I have done this myself for three years while I was in school. I lived through it, but it was not a decent way to live. I am not a Rabbit to live in a warren....
Self driven cars need a dedicated sealed road system that only a self driven car could access for high speed moves over significant distances, followed by ejection back to normal driving mode and speeds. These may take the form of linear accelerators for a roadway controlled run.
The configuration change will be a car that uses different power sources. Electric is obvious (Batteries, fuel cells, and superconductor energy storage), as well as CNG, Browne gas, alcohol, and high pressure air, but gasoline will remain due to existing infrastructure, and the possibility of synthetics.
That said, I do agree that the present auto drive car expectations are not reasonable, and will be beyond a cost effective solution for at least another decade. The hardware costs are prohibitive, and cars are hell on electronics! BUT we will see massive changes in cars them themselves. I am moving to the country myself, but I do NOT believe there is anyone big and mean enough to force me to live in a down town situation; and I am looking at building my own automobile powered by alternate energy.
Enjoyed your post a lot, thanks!
:)My current thoughts on an alternative energy car is a Tesla turbine powered by CNG or Propane driving a genset. Then, your standard electric motor drive. The problem with turbines has always been trying to build a transmission for a engine that doesn't like to change speeds much. But, running a genset should be easy, (technically easy) but there will be a lot of playing with fuel flows, inlet types and how to handle the heat, etc...
For actual transport, i feel we should start looking at mono-rail / i-beam tracks. And put automated cars and delivery pods on them. Trains and cars are really obsolete, except that the existing infrastructure, there is far better ideas.
All i can say is that the future will be interesting.
It will be interesting at that!I have an operational generator that will power the electric car I am building. I have not been able to load it down yet, so I am unsure of the maximum output thus far. But I can up-size it if I need to later.
:DThought provoking.
I am delighted that you put this out.
I often thought that cars are meanwhile the masters of people and not the other way around. A car needs maintenance, space, repair and takes up a lot of financial resources. It often is more a pain in the but than a servant for what it was actually build for: freedom of using muscle power to move from one point to the other and mostly to transport something I cannot carry on my own.
Where automobiles dominate the scene the area itself vibrates of a somehow dead atmosphere. After all shopping has been done the whole space looks ghostly and lifeless. So much space just to consume...
Indeed, when I walk the streets I grew up in - a suburbia - I felt a certain depression about the shielded properties and introvert existences of the people living there. I found no outside life as there are no businesses and even no particular garden economies. I find this utterly disturbing that people who do have huge gardens do not make anything with them - there is so much potential in this! Not a lot of "common" is to be found there yet. And therefore no particular "community" just a working class society which serves the "The iron-triangle. car-job-house" as you put it so bluntly.
Indeed the design is changing little by little and I like it a lot. I am one example you talk about. I work where I live, walk to my working space or take my bike. Grow plants and herbs on my balcony - would like to support the local dealer even more but as finances are small (I decided for time instead of money) this creates me some difficulties but I see it as a process and within it I learn how to navigate and find solutions.
I really like how you use your thoughts to put them into this easy to approach text.
Thank you much for reading.
And, something that took a century to build up, will take a little while to change. But, it is inevitable.
The lifelessness of the places is really bad. Needs changing.