Captain's Log 9/2

Last week's recap: BTC: $4300 & ETH: $330

I said I wanted to wait for about a 9% drop before buying, but that it would also be ok buying at $330 ETH for the short term. I also I thought BTC & ETH would steadily increase to 5k/400, and then there would be about a 20% correction. And I was right....ish

This is what actually happened to ETH in the past week:

There's been a 10% pullback so far vs the 20% I said last week, but give it time and it'll be at the 20% mark.

Well, I actually went all-in on ETH at $340 and sold at $380. I should have waited and sold closer to my target of $400. BTC has similar movements, nearing $5k and pulling back nearly 10%. I played around a little in alt coins with both BTC and ETH. Some trades were 3%-30% profit, and a few were up to 50% losses. Keep in mind, I've allocated about 50% of my total bankroll to active trading, and of that I'm not putting more than 10% in any one coin, usually layering in bids 2% (of total bankroll) at a time. All in all I was still profitable in alt coins, but that leads me to what I'm currently executing.

One strategic advantage of trading alt coins vs straight btc/eth/stocks is that even if an alt coin goes down, it's possible to pull the btc/eth back into fiat, at a profit compared to when I put in the fiat. This is possible because of the crypto bull market. I should have pulled my losses at 5k/400 instead of waiting, but I still got out at a profit, and at the end of the day isn't that what counts? (This maybe comparable to the use of the petrodollar.)

Last week I also said I'd like to enter ETH at $306 - I'm going to change that entry a little bit. I think ETH will get to under $295 this coming week. I'm looking to squeeze every last dollar, so I set a bid at $271.50. If someone panic sells into me that's great, otherwise I'll check out the market when I have a chance and hopefully buy below $285.

My target of $271.5-$285 is for a quick hard bounce. I anticipate being able to sell ETH around $300-$310. If I'm able to, I'll watch it above $300 towards my $310 goal, otherwise I'll just set the sell at $300. That should be a 5-10% profit bounce.

Ultimately, I see ETH below $200, and below $150 I'll heavily consider buying on margin. People who believe all air gaps need to be filled will preach that ETH will be back under $100 - only time will tell. I will confidently buy ETH on 10-100X margins if it's under $80. (I have minimum knowledge and no practice of margins trading)

Liberally, I can say a $1,000 all in at $330 on my last post and selling at $390 would have been put me at $1180. Let's say I'll go all in at $285 and sell at $300 during this upcoming week.

Keep in mind that I'm not able to trade intra-day, so my positions have to be on a more conservative time scale.

P.S. Will we copy ETH copy movements from June? $400 top, $340 support bouncing to $370 resistance; $250 support bouncing to $315 support turned to resistance; $180 support bouncing to $230 resistance. But that's where it'll end the copy pasta - instead it'll break down straight to $100, where I'll wait to buy it fully leveraged at $80.