Artificial Intelligence - The road to hell is paved with good intentions
A little background
Previously, I presented my dystopic views on Ray Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating Returns requesting your feedback in an attempt to drive interest on the subject while create an open dialog. Although I didn't get the overwhelming responses and visibility I was hoping to achieve, I did have some interest.
Courtesy of Google and MIT Technology Review
The article reminded @iontom of a series of short stories he recently read, noting the similarities with Steemit and it's attention-driven currency from a barrage of information feeds. I did a little digging and provided a link to download the free e-book for Accelerando by Charles Stross (which notably won the Locus Award in 2006, as well as being nominated for a Hugo, British Science Fiction Association Awards and other established awards around that time), based on his reply. It does look like a good read and I am excited to get started on it. Thank you @iontom for sharing!
Additionally another outstanding reply came from @everittmickey, who is impressed with Ray Kurzweil's predictions and accuracy, with a much more optimistic outlook on the future from my own. There was one major issue with his optimism, though.
He didn't believe Artificial Intelligence would ever come to fruition due to the complexity of the brain.
The difficulty of reconstructing the brain functionality of an insect would require a network of supercomputers to perform the most miniscule of objectives, @everittmickey argues, much less than the mechanics of a human brain. What I gathered from his perspective is the inability for such a engineering feat to be constructed as well as the accomplishment to produce Self-Awareness.
The perspective of @everittmickey is correct... today.
Today versus tomorrow
Respectively, based on the advancements in three-dimensional integrated circuits, Quantum Computing (both Annealing and Universal models), and in combination with Artificial General Intelligence, I would argue we are rapidly approaching a new era.
Here is an example of IBM's Watson put together a trailer for a new Ridley Scott movie Morgan:
Granted, there is some human intervention, however one shouldn't deviate from the fact that an AI entity identified scenes ranging emotionally from happy to scary, building a foundation of clips to peek the viewer's interest without divulging the entire story. After viewing the original two trailers of the film, I believe Watson's version was superior without question.
Google has been a driving force in the development of several technological channels, screaming around the track, seemingly throwing caution to the wind. They share a D-Wave quantum computer with NASA, providing a launch pad for the computing algorithms applied for Annealing, that can function 100 million times faster than a traditional computer system. Not only that, they have employed the lead designer in Quantum Computing from the University of Santa Barbara, John Martinis to build their own quantum computer that will not be restricted to annealing, but a universal quantum computer with all the functionality of a traditional system with the speed of the D-Wave. They also acquired the DeepMind Artificial Intelligence platform and have made advancements from a coding aspect.
Combining the Quantum Computing with the Artificial Intelligence certainly leaves little to the imagination to fill the proverbial gap. With both IBM and Google having access to the most powerful Artificial Intelligence coding available as well as quantum computing design leading to universal quantum systems, I would venture to speculate a 'quantum leap' to be revealed within the next four to five years.
The big picture
This is merely the tip of the iceberg. Science is advancing in a number of different fields such as Physics, Genetic Engineering, Nanotechnology, Neural Networks, Longevity, Robotics and Bioelectric Engineering. With Artificial Intelligence on a universal quantum computer converging in the area of study shift each exponentially, tying back to the Law of Accelerating Returns.
The question then will be, can we keep up?
We want to hear from you!
Will Artificial Intelligence reach the point to become self-aware? In the event is does, do you fear the outcome as has been warned by so many prominent figures? Are you optimistic or pessimistic for the future of technology and mankind as a whole?
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In theory it is possible to somehow replicate the human brain capacity to make decisions based on the inputs. But I think we are still in the beginnings of mastering it.
I completely agree. That said, it all begins somewhere, and I tend to lean toward it coming about sooner than most would think. Time will tell.
Thanks for the shout-out @ruscion! I really like the idea of forming a cybernetic-intelligentsia of well-structured arguments about the path forward for AI. It reminds me of the early days of /r/Futurology.
One of the reasons I'm "optimistic" for an AI-heavy future is that right now the top talent in deep learning is getting paid like NFL quarterbacks.
http://www.economist.com/news/business/21695908-silicon-valley-fights-talent-universities-struggle-hold-their
Without a doubt. We're already entering a new era or sorts, the Chinese supercomputer Sunway TaihuLight is pushing 125 PETAFLOPS. This is the lower end estimation of the human brain neural connections. Things like the Human Connectome and the Allen Brain Institute are steam-rolling ahead in ways to model the brain.
Ultimately - I think we get AGI in one of two ways:
I think we'll get both types. In my series 'The Star Steaders' I'm describing this difference as "Wet Cogs" versus "Dry Cogs" where Wet means a simulated brain.
More on that soon! And yeah, even quantum computing will probably help too. I'm not super impressed by the adiabatic stuff that D-wave is doing, but if they can figure out how to do Topological QC / braid groups - all bets are off!
Keep up the awesome posts! Maybe we can find a good shared tag to get started. I wish they gave us more than five!
Though I do not believe that AI could reach the point of self-awareness, I do fear what it can be capable of. Great post and good information!
Thank you for the kind words and the upvote as well!
You are welcome.
Good Article.
However. I fear that I was unclear in my objections. I have NO doubt that it is possible to use something like a hypothetical APMD (Atomically Precise Manufacturing Device) to build an exact copy of anything . By exact I mean down to the atomic level. I also have no doubt that since a 'mind' is an emergent phenomena from a sufficiently complex network that a mind will emerge from such a replication.
The problem is that it will be the exact SAME mind.
The problem, as I see it, is analogous to a computer. The mind is a program . How can you examine a computer that is operating and determine what the program is?
What operating system to 'minds' run on.
Julian Jaynes, in his 1976 book The Origin of Consciousness in the Breakdown of the Bicameral Mind, suggest a different operating system, although he didn't use those precise terms.
Which opens up whole NOTHER can of worms. Multi-tasking. or Dissociative Identity Disorder (multiple personalities)
and if multiple personalities are possible in ONE skull (brain), how about ONE personality using TWO skulls (brains) or more? Perhaps many more.. Gestalt minds. And who says the skulls (brains) have to be the same species? The technology to do is conceivable. (make a bunchaton of tiny radio repeaters and implant them in the corpus callosum of the brain. A wirelessly connected multiple lobe brain would be the result.
Dogs and cats living together...oh my.
OR...a human and his pack...
fascinating.
Thank you for the clarification @everittmickey! As always I appreciate your feedback. From what I gather, scientific studies have already been in place combining multiple actual brains of rats and monkeys (independent to species) and they were working together, which sounds similar to a portion of your comments.
I do apologize for misrepresenting your views and I do hope we can continue the dialog!
On no problem. I was unclear. Some things are difficult to explain. I hadn't heard of the rats and monkeys.
I just read the rats/monkey thing. Interesting.
I would point out that the brain does many things. Control body parts is one thing. Cognition is something else. Controlling the body is fairly well understood. So is remote control from outside sources.
: side note: imagine being 'wired into and eagle's eyes, being able to see everything that the eagle sees. Or better yet to be wired into the eyes of a 'fly on the wall'. Seems possible.
Augmenting cognition, on the other hand , is something else entirely. Cognition is the 'emergent property' that I was referring to. It's NOT presupposed by 'controlling the body'. It's currently a mystery as to how it even happens.