Bloomberg has just launched live tracker that estimates a variety of statistics relating to the crucial Model 3. Most importantly, it estimates the weekly production rate for the 3 along with the total produced. Currently, at the time of writing, they estimate 7,341 units produced and a weekly production rate of 1,025.

If those numbers are accurate, it would make Tesla's goal of 2,500 units a week by the end of Q1 look achievable, albeit slightly challenging.

You can view the tracker live here

How Do They Get Their Estimates?

They determine their estimates using a couple of estimates. The first is NHTSA registrations by Tesla. Before Tesla can assign a Vehicle Identification Number (VIN) to a vehicle, they must register it. Tesla usually registers them in batches of anywhere from a few hundred to a few thousand. Now this method isn't entirely accurate, Tesla registers VIN's in large batches, so determining how fast they are manufacturing them is difficult. However, it can be useful to determine roughly how fast production is moving.

Secondly, they use spotted VIN's to then estimate how quickly those vehicles are turning out into the wild. People report sightings of Model 3's identified by their VIN's, and Bloomberg helps to compile the data. This, again, isn't a perfect method. Tesla doesn't produce VIN's chronologically, they often switch between VIN's still in the 1000's and VIN's in the 7000's, which makes it difficult to determine exact figures.

However, combining these two methods can produce generally reliable figures for Model 3 production.

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