Spur of the Moment Guide to FACTFULNESS: WEEK 16

p. 92-100

This chunk of information ends the chapter on the straight line instinct. The author covers all types of curves a trend might follow.

The instinct is to assume a straight line just like most people seem to be doing about growth population. So the book suggests to “remember that curves come in different shapes.” (page 100)

I’m going to comment on three graphs. First, the two S-bend curve graphs about literacy and vaccination.

What the S-curve describes is that the phenomenon will start at a low percentage at level 1, and then it will keep increasing until level 4 where it will turn flat. So basically, literacy will keep increasing until it reaches 100% (or thereabouts).

Literacy, the ability to read and write, is very important. The term has been expanded these days to include other competencies as well, such as the ability to use computers in order to gain knowledge and to communicate, among other things. Source:

Two thoughts come to mind. First, fragments of articles and documentaries about modern-day illiteracy (reading and writing). So there are people who despite being illiterate managed to move just fine in life, meaning they got jobs which paid enough for them to survive and have children which ended up not just literate but highly educated too.

I’m assuming that if not impossible then it’s probably very difficult for something like that to be true these days. In fact, these days even the highly educated seem to have a problem with getting a job and some can’t afford to raise a family.

Second, as the expanded term of literacy proves, what it means to be literate changes. The bar is set higher and higher.

That way, it’s probably impossible for a population to ever reach 100% literacy level, right?

So although a phenomenon might follow an S-bend curve, perhaps higher income is not the solution. For example, reaching level 4 might mean that the majority of a population is literate, but that may not be enough. Perhaps higher income will be accompanied by a more expanded term of literacy accomplishment, but what if there’s a point where higher income can no longer influence the literacy level?

Perhaps countries and people at level 4 should figure out what else might be needed for people to better their circumstances and not count solely on the S-curve. I suppose in a way, the talk about skill-based immigration, about trade schools and the calls for better cooperation between the education system and the job market are ways people and governments are trying to address this very issue.

As far as the vaccination graph goes, the first thought that came to mind was a level 4 country recently halting their vaccination program.

Finally, the third graph is the doubling income graph on page 99. If you are thinking about how many millions you need for your life to change, perhaps you should simply start thinking about doubling your income.

The Spur of the Moment Guide to FACTFULNESS is a series of posts of first thoughts while reading the book FACTFULNESS by Hans Rosling (this is an affiliate link).

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