Answer: What are some statistics that show increased risks after getting the covid vaccines? (Part 2)

in #sciencelast month

Inflammatory Cardiomyopathy in Particular

The elevated risk of inflammatory cardiomyopathy following any modRNA dose drastically varies by the age and sex of the recipient, the number of doses, the time between doses, the platform and the lot number.

For adolescents and young adults, specifically males, the risk of myocarditis and pericarditis has been found to be as high as 1 in 2652 and 1 in 301 in a smaller Thai study of adolescents between 13 and 18 years of age. An even earlier AMA study using CDC data confirms that young males in their teens to late 20s have an elevated risk of myocarditis with males comprising 82% of such cases and individuals under 30 years of age comprising 73% of such cases, with a median age of 21 years. Additionally, 82% of cases of myocarditis occurred after the second dose. The highest reported rates of myocarditis were among males 16–17 years old (106 per million doses), males 12–15 years old (71 per million doses) and males 18–24 years old (56.3 per million).

A similar risk-benefit analysis published earlier last year in the European journal of Clinical Investigation also found that males between 12–17 years of age were at an elevated risk of shot related SAEs, after the second dose. For males between 12–15 years of age, there were 162.2 incidences of myo/pericarditis per million doses (1 in 6,165) and 93 incidence of myo/pericarditis (1 in 10,753) for males ages 16 and 17 years. As a result of this elevated risk, the authors recommend individualized pediatric COVID-19 vaccination strategies weighing actual (cohort) risk (not general population) of severe disease against risk of heart inflammation and other AESI.

An even larger cohort Nordic study that surveyed 23 million Scandinavians across 4 countries also found an elevated risk of myo/pericarditis after the second dose for young males between 16–24 years of age. Using a 28-day window, researchers observed 105 cases of myocarditis after the first dose of the BNT162b2 (Pfizer) shot and an additional 115 cases after the second dose. There were 15 cases of myocarditis after the first dose of mRNA-1273 (Moderna shot) and an additional 60 cases after the second shot. For males between 16–24 years of age there were 5.5 excess events per 100,000 vaccines for the BNT162b2 shot and 18.39 excess events per 100,000 vaccines for mRNA-1273 shot. There were 1,077 incidents of myocarditis 1,149 incidents of pericarditis across the general population.

A self-controlled case series Oxford study commonly cited as evidence that the incidence of myocarditis after infection is 7x greater than the incidence of myocarditis after vaccination, in the general population, also reported that, in fact, the opposite is true for men under 40 years of age. Assuming the risk of myocarditis post infection and post shot is the same for men under 40 years of age is the same as it is for the general population is called the fallacy of division.

The General Recipient Population (n = 42 million)

The study finds the first dose of AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines are both associated with an additional 2 myocarditis events per million recipients. The second dose of the Pfizer vaccine is associated with an additional 2 myocarditis events per million recipients while the second dose of the Moderna vaccine is associated with an additional 34 myocarditis events per million recipients. The third booster dose of Pfizer is associated with an additional 2 myocarditis events per million recipients while a booster dose of Moderna is associated with an additional myocarditis event per million recipients 1-28 days after the shot. A COVID19 infection is associated with an additional 35 myocarditis events before vaccination and 23 myocarditis events after vaccination 1-28 days after a positive test between December 20, 2020 and December 15, 2021.

Men under 40 (n = 6.16 million)

The study finds an additional 4 myocarditis events per million recipients after the first dose of Pfizer and an additional 14 myocarditis events per million recipients after the first dose of Moderna, 1-28 days after the first dose. The second dose of Pfizer is associated with an additional 11 myocarditis events per million recipients, while the second dose of Moderna is associated with an additional 97 myocarditis events per million recipients. A COVID19 infection is associated with an additional 16 myocarditis events before vaccination, 1-28 days after a positive test, in male recipients < 40 years of age between December 20, 2020 and December 15, 2021. The study omits data for this particular demographic for myocarditis associated with the booster dose but records incidence rate ratios of 1.85 for the first Pfizer dose, 3.08 for the second Pfizer dose and 2.28 for the Pfizer booster. The study records an incidence rate ratio of 4.35 for a positive COVID test prior to vaccination and incidence rate ratios of 3.06 and 16.83 for the first and second dose of Moderna. The incidence of myocarditis after the primary series is much higher than the incidence of myocarditis after infection for men under 40 years of age. The study reports 13 myocarditis events following a positive test, prior to vaccination, 44 myocarditis events following the Moderna primary series, 103 myocarditis events following the Pfizer primary series and 34 myocarditis events following the AstraZeneca primary series between December 2020-2021 (n = 181 out of 617 total myocarditis events 1–28 days after vaccination). Women > 40 years of age also face a more substantial risk of myocarditis following the primary series compared to their < 40 counterparts.

Also keep in my that since the data from this study is almost two years old the incidence of myocarditis following infection from new variants is probably much lower than it was at the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021. As I pointed out in UK Government Figures on Vaccinated Deaths With Covid, the vast majority of unvaccinated deaths (62.6%), between January 2021 and December 2022 occurred in just one month (January 2021) while 82.2% of unvaccinated deaths occurred in just two months (January and February 2021). This is also the likely peak for virus induced myocarditis for the unvaccinated.

A matched case control study conducted in France between May 12, 2021 and October 31, 2021 examining 1,612 cases of myocarditis and 1,613 cases of pericarditis that were reported within that 5-month period. While this is old data based on the Pfizer and Moderna monovalent primary series available at the time it reaffirms what we already suspected from previous studies (here and here): that the cohorts least likely to be hospitalized or fall severely ill from covid are most likely to be injured by the supposed cure and supposed risk of myo/pericarditis from the virus being 7x higher than for the vaccine in the general population is not true of all ages and risk groups. Suggesting so is the fallacy of division.

Groups with elevated risk of Myocarditis

Males 18-24 years of age are 44x more likely to develop myocarditis following the second dose.

Females 18-24 years of age are 41x more likely to develop myocarditis following the second dose.

Excess cases attributable to the shot were 1 in 5,900 following the second dose.

Males 12-17 years of age are 18x more likely to develop myocarditis following the second dose.

Excess cases attributable to the shot were 1 in 21,100 following the second dose.

Females 12-17 years of age are 7.1x more likely to develop myocarditis following the second dose.

Excess cases attributable to the shot were 1 in 52,300 following the second dose.

Groups with elevated risk of Pericarditis

Males 12-17 years of age are 6.8x more likely to develop pericarditis following the second dose.

Females 12-17 years of age are 10x more likely to develop pericarditis following the second dose.

Males and females 30-39 years of age are 20x more likely to develop pericarditis following the second dose.

Despite designing the study to select for data that would reinforce the ‘safe and effective’ narrative the study authors of a Canadian multiprovincial retrospective analysis still had to concede that the age stratified risk of myocarditis/pericarditis from modRNA products is inverse with 77% of post-infection myocarditis events occurring among those aged 40 years or older while the opposite was true for post shot myocarditis/pericarditis with 38% of cases occurring among recipients 18-29 years old, the least susceptible cohort to severe disease requiring hospitalization. And even though it finds a higher incident rate after infection than injection overall they admit some rather glaring exceptions such as a higher incidence rate of myocarditis and pericarditis following the Pfizer primary series for adolescents 12-17 years of age (rate ratio 1.16) and a higher rate of myocarditis and pericarditis following the Moderna primary series than SARS-COV-2 infection for persons 18-29 years of age (ratio 1.68). In the past I’ve pointed out that these results have been found consistently across the world even in studies designed to minimize the actual risk of cardiomyopathy from modRNA products such as (Part 1) and (Part 5).

A retrospective cohort study (CardioCOVID-Gemelli) conducted using data from all patients over 18 years of age admitted to Fondazione Policlinico A. Gemelli IRCCS Hospital in Rome for COVID19 disease between March 2021 and February 2022 found that out of 1,019 patients treated for COVID19 145 patients suffered myocardial injury. Out of the 352 vaccinated patients admitted 61 suffered myocardial injury with high sensitivity cardiac troponin levels greater than 56 nanograms/Liter, with the majority of recipients (35) receiving one or more Pfizer doses. Among the several positive predictors of elevated risk of myocardial injury including advanced age, hypertension, renal impairment, COPD, and Chronic Kidney disease vaccination status at zero doses was not one of them. In fact, between the 3 tertiles the study divided patients into by age, the COVID shots were only found to reduce the risk of myocardial injury from infection in the last tertile of seniors over 76 years of age and elevated risk of myocardial injury after infection in the lower tertiles ( 60-75 years and less than 60 years) although it was only statistically significant in the first tertile at the 0.05 alpha level. However, the authors conclude that vaccination status was not a statistically significant predictor of myocardial injury following hospitalization in the overall study population.

Another nationwide study of the incidence of myocarditis following the shot, conducted in the Republic of Korea, has confirmed the findings of several others that found this inverse relationship reporting that males between the ages of 12-17, who have one of the lowest risk of severe disease, had the highest rates of shot induced myocarditis (1 case per 18,678 recipients) while females over 70 years of age, who have the highest risk of severe disease, have the lowest risk of shot induced myocarditis (1 case per 625,000 recipients). The youngest cohorts made up the majority of vaccine related myocarditis (VRM) with 12–17-year-olds accounting for 16% of VRM despite only being 5% of the vaxxed population and 18–29-year-olds accounting for 34% of VRM despite only being 17% of the vaxxed population and 15% of the overall population. 12–39-year-olds collectively account for 68% of VRM while males under 40 accounted for 62.3% of VRM. 20% of VRM were severe enough to result in fulminant myocarditis or death. The study also observed another suspicion: that spike protein modRNA shots were 10x more likely to cause VRM (1.5 cases per 100k recipients) than adenoviral vector shots (0.15 cases per 100k recipients).

A historical cohort study of three separate age groups in Thailand (n = 40 million) found that 12–17-year-old recipients of Pfizer modRNA shots, especially males, had the highest risk of myocarditis even compared to males with previous delta variant infections.

A historical cohort study of three separate age groups in Thailand (n = 40 million) found that 12–17-year-old recipients of Pfizer modRNA shots, especially males, had the highest risk of myocarditis even compared to males with previous delta variant infections.

Table 2 shows the vast majority (196/215) cases of myocarditis from the modRNA shots was experienced by recipients in the12–17 years age range while they were only 39 of the 115 cases of myocarditis among the unvaccinated controls. That’s 1 case for every 19,497.5 recipients of at least one modRNA dose, which around the same incident rate every other country has reported for that age cohort, while the base rate in the unvaccinated population is 1 case in 124,351 persons and 1 case per 30,000 delta infections for persons 12–17 years of age.

76% of myocarditis cases documented in VAERS required emergency care and hospitalization while about 3% resulted in death.

Those are the findings of a data analysis of 133,384 cardiac Adverse Events documented in VAERS from January 2021 to August 11, 2023 conducted by Rose et al., last year.

A total of 3,078 cases of shot induced myocarditis are documented in that time frame. 50% of cases occurred in recipients less that 30 years of age with 12–17 year old adolescents having the highest rate (571 documented cases). 69% of cases occurred in males.

The baseline rate of myocarditis for children and adolescents is about 1 in 250,000. As I noted in (Part 6) rates of myocarditis and pericarditis following a covid infection are not higher than the baseline rate of myocarditis and pericarditis in the general population. As I’ve noted in pervious parts of this series (1, 2, 3, 4 & 5) rates of myocarditis in children, adolescents and young adult males have been as low as 1 case in 21,100 recipients in a nationwide French study and as high as 1 case in 301 recipients in a smaller Thai study. For immunocompetent males in these age cohorts, the NNV to prevent 1 hospitalization from any complication due to an omicron infection are much lower: about 1 in 168,200 for adult males between 20 and 29 years of age in the no risk group and 1 in 76,000 for 16–19 year old males, which is the average for both risk groups.

While there were far more covid shots administered than any other vaccine in previous years including 2.3x the number of annual flu shots, adjusted for number of shots administered there were still 6.2x as many SAEs and 118x as many SAE reports from the covid shot compared to the flu shot over a 462 day time frame. Furthermore, the baseline rate of documented myocarditis for all vaccines averages only 10.8 cases per year in VAERS; this means there was a 223x higher rate of myocarditis following the modRNA shots compared to every other (attenuated or inactive) vaccine for the past 3 decades. Documented VAERS cases are usually only a fraction of cases that actually occur due to high standards of documentation; the estimated number of post shot myocarditis cases in the US, based on historical reporting rates for other SAEs, is over 95,000 including sub clinical cases.

Even if we only go off the VAERS documented cases of shot induced myocarditis we find it occurs in roughly:

  • 1 in 75,000 recipients of a complete primary series
  • 1 in 27,000 recipients of a complete primary series between 12–17 years of age of either sex.

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