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RE: Prediction: when Bitconnect ponzi scheme will implode
Really interesting analysis but I think you discounted the most important element, BCC. I appreciate it’s a complication and appears to serve no purpose but if that’s true, why is it there?
It’s there because that is how Bitconnect is able to continue paying out. They control the supply of BCC (due to the premine). In this way they can make me buy BCC, then use my btc to pay you!! It’s fiendish. It has to collapse sooner or later but I think it will run well past the end of the year!
I did not want to discuss about BCC because will only complicated it. My main motivation is to prevent innocent people falling for this scam. If I manage to save only one person, then this article was worth writing.
BCC is just a cushion between BTC and USD and of course it helped Bitconnect to run this long. It is highly manipulated by bitconnect exchange which controls 96% of volume. Many other steamers covered it, it was unnecessary and my article was long enough without it. Bitconnect might run pas a year, if they reduce payout or bitcoin price goes up. I think, going forward they will have trouble finding "fresh meat" to feed the system.
My apologies if you thought I was picking holes in your article. That was not my intent. I found it well written. I just think that with most people reinvesting, the fees they charge, the fact that they control the BCC market and price plus the btc bull market we are in, they will run well into next year. I may be wrong. However if bitcoin crashes or we enter a prolonged bear market I expect Bitconnect to collapse rapidly!
On contrary, you're providing move value. Thank you. Yes they can run into next year, a lot of things happen. But still there is a high chance of them failing this year. I would estimate 65% chance it will fail this year and 90% within 6 months. A lot of people still think BCC have a long way to go, years, and I think it is very unlikely.
I saw many people who invested $100 and now have 3-4K, they will soon start withdrawing after they reach 10K. Also Shredda has around 110K invested, he will start withdrawing as soon as he hits 150K. Last time he started withdrawing with CF, it went belly up.
If its a scam, they will pull the plug as soon as money coming in (from all sources including their manipulation of BCC) starts to be less than the money they are paying out. Obviously we have no gauge of those figures. But considering its based in Asia and that's a huge market........... Time will tell. Lets see if they go ahead with their October event where they invite (and pay) for people to go to Thailand or similar.
They won't pull the plug while money getting in > money getting out. We don't know when it will happen since we don't have sufficient data. But one thing is for sure, interest they pay and referral fees is unsustainable. Even if a great percentage of people on planet earth join, they will eventually fail.
I completely agree and is what I tried to articulate in previous comment! Glad we are in agreement