RE: Curating the Internet: Science and technology digest for February 8, 2020
On a general note, I have been struck this morning by the realization that more than 5% of global population is presently under quarantine in China today. The impact this will have on research and innovation, that has been one of China's greatest successes of modernization, is profound.
Our technology is dependent not so much on physical devices and tooling, but on the knowledge our people possess. Close to ten percent of human technology just effectively vanished from our world, presently locked behind doors welded shut, apartment buildings with their doors blocked by piles of debris deliberately, and seized by police state thugs and forcibly detained in quarantine centers until they die of Kung Flu.
It's not just our supply chains being severed that will impact us economically in the immediate future. Our wealth of scientists, scholars, and researchers has been slashed by ~10%, and this will have ineffable impact on our ability to respond to and recover from this plague.
Thanks!
Thanks for the comment!
I wasn't aware that so many people were under quarantine. The most recent number I had seen was around 50 million several weeks ago. Still a huge number, but I was not aware that it was anywhere near 5% of global population.
In the medium term, I think that most global companies these days are aware of the need for geographic redundancy, so hopefully the majority will be able to adjust their supply lines in reasonable time frame to respond to the interruption, but I agree that there will be some challenges and disruptions.
I fully agree with your concern regarding the loss of scientists and researchers who are concentrated in the area. I know the mortality rate from the disease is being reported at around 2%, but I'm not sure I believe that number, since it comes through the Great Firewall of China. If the death rate is significantly higher, that could represent a huge loss of intellectual resources.
I worded my comment poorly, implying none recover, which I regret. I am not excused by the fact I was rushed and headed off to work, particularly not on this subject. I meant that these folks aren't able to work now, when we need them most, not that they would be permanently out of the workforce. We don't know what the mortality rate is, but it's worse than we want it to be, and that's surely a terrible tragedy no matter what it is.
The last I heard there were 400 million under quarantine today, including the Bay Area where lies Shenzen. This is basically all of China's first tier cities, where most of the science and manufacturing for export is done.