Black swans pass but you keep missing the train
The first time I heard about a black swan in 2007 when I read the famous Nassim Taleb book.
Until that day I had always theorized that in case of an acute crisis I would be ready to benefit from it.
I would take full advantage of it, then with what I earned I would help those who were in difficulty.
Instead the crisis of 2008 arrived and I, despite all the preparation, was not able to achieve stratospheric results.
Since I forgive the mistakes but I do not forgive not learning from them, I went to analyze what did not allow me to take full advantage.
I remember that the most serious problem was something very trivial, that is, to become aware that the crisis was over.
How is that possible?
The reason is that when a trial takes months, years, it is easy to lose sight of the big picture.
The noise of the news and the uncoordinated recovery among all the countries was one of the reasons of disorientation for me (and for many others I suppose).
After 11 years the black swan returns and is among the most violent ever.
I am prepared and I have lightened my riskiest positions, especially on the stock exchange already in January.
I haven't had any premonitory dreams, nor am I a genius of the lamp.
I had only noticed that for a few months (about 3) the index of indexes, the S&P500 was in a position that the technical analysis of stock exchanges calls overbought.
In addition, average index ratings indicated a price/earnings ratio and an EV/EBITDA at potentially critical levels.
These two fundamental variables alone are not sufficient to make investment decisions and in fact they were not (entirely) sufficient this time either.
The real trigger that made me think about lightening my portfolio was the announcement of a resolution of the China/US tariff conflict.
On January 15 I wrote on my mastermind group that for me that was a very strong "short" signal on the markets and that I would prepare to get out of it and then probably regret it, but I felt it was better that way.
Of course I didn't come out at all but I reduced the damage, generated useful liquidity and inflated my ego.
This is a Black Swan, but it will eventually pass.