Video

Transcript:

00:00
okay so I wanted to make a quick video
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here about you know more signs from the
00:04
top and this series I've been writing
00:07
about accordion for I don't know six
00:10
months or so and basically I'm just
00:13
pointing out the different things that
00:14
appear to me to indicate that we are at
00:17
or near the top of the market
00:19
and I've said it in previous installment
00:22
that I don't think we get out of 2019
00:24
without a crash of some kind or another
00:26
and yesterday the second of October I
00:30
was browsing Zero Hedge like I'd like to
00:33
do and there were three different
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stories from three different cities all
00:37
about real estate activity slowing down
00:40
or prices falling or whatever here we've
00:44
got Vancouver home sales crash 44% us
00:46
for sale inventory soars and then in
00:50
Hongkong prices saw from the first time
00:53
in twenty nine months and in Manhattan
00:56
the brokers are baffled and has met
01:00
Hatton luxury housing route spreads to
01:01
broader market so yeah I mean each one
01:06
of these is not saying that you know the
01:08
entire real estate market across the
01:10
world is going to fall tomorrow
01:12
what they are indicating is that a lot
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of the activity that we've been seeing
01:15
for the last several years is slowing
01:17
down or stopping and there's lots of
01:19
reasons for that we are seeing tighter
01:21
capital controls in China we are seeing
01:24
tender capital controls in Russia or
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former Soviet countries as well interest
01:31
rates are rising and all of these things
01:34
are combining to you know those are all
01:39
negative pressures on real estate prices
01:42
and real estate activity because you
01:44
know most most house purchases are
01:49
leveraged and the higher the interest
01:50
rate then the less total purchase a
01:54
buyer can cancel Tate given a certain
01:58
monthly payments so you know there's an
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old saying about how real estate is just
02:04
a function of jobs well that's kind of
02:07
true and we are seeing that effect
02:13
down with the res new interest rates now
02:15
that's not true is where you have
02:16
foreign buyers so like in Miami near
02:19
where I am you know we see you know a
02:21
lot of South American money coming in
02:23
and buying up Miami we've also seen a
02:26
lot of Chinese in last several years
02:27
coming in and buying money me in
02:30
Vancouver it's it was mostly Chinese
02:33
money and that's slowing down quite a
02:35
bit that's why he get like a little you
02:37
know 10 square meter Shack that's
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falling down goes further
02:42
you know Canadian dollars and in Hong
02:46
Kong definitely trying to influence
02:47
London as a lot of Middle Eastern money
02:51
and then also Chinese money coming into
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it so what does that mean basically it's
02:58
just just an indicator it's just another
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warning sign that you know if we are
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expecting the next ten years to be like
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the last ten years you're gonna have
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problems so just you know make your
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plans accordingly well before I go one
03:15
other thing
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I do want to point out that you know
03:17
using all this from one website that
03:20
definitely is a bearish slant on a lot
03:23
of things is selection bias and I'm
03:25
aware of that but these are true things
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that are happening so you know there are
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other markets where things are still
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rising but it's just you know when
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things go up they don't just turn around
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and go down you know there's a third arc
03:39
so I think we're in that arc somewhere
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and like I said I I don't think we get
03:44
out of next year 2019 without you know
03:48
major cracks and crashes appearing in
03:50
various sectors