I believe all that you say is correct, but both Russia and China are tired of being bullied by NATO and may do a preemptive attack on the all NATO countries which will change everything. Russia isn't testing out it's weapons in Syria for nothing. Putin has warned of grave consequences, but no one is taking him seriously which I think is a big mistake. He is ex KGB so has that mindset which shouldn't be dismissed. USA is also currently at it's weakest militarily thanks to Obama and It's people are very divided over Trump which Putin will see as an opportunity to attack before USA regains it's strength. Also the Dollar is crashing and soon won't be the World Reserve currency.