Why does the crypto market keep falling?
For those hoping for a market turnaround, this news has been unwelcome. But at the end of May, noted crypto trader and influencer Willy Woo predicted the BTC price would drop to the mid-$5,000s before June’s end in a Twitter thread, citing the cryptocurrency’s overly high NVT signal and volatility, disproportionate Standard NVT, and Volume Profile Cliff below $6,800. He explained:
Disclosure: I own some Bitcoin, Ripple, Litecoin, and actively trade other cryptocurrencies.
Meanwhile, the New York Times recently reported on a 66-page academic paper that claimed BTC’s price had been artificially inflated by Tether and Bitfinex — a hypothesis in public speculation for many months prior. John Griffin, the lead author of the paper and professor at the University of Texas, is noted for his history of spotting fraud in financial markets.
Mr. Griffin looked at the flow of digital tokens going in and out of Bitfinex and identified several distinct patterns that suggest that someone or some people at the exchange successfully worked to push up prices when they sagged at other exchanges. To do that, the person or people used a secondary virtual currency, known as Tether, which was created and sold by the owners of Bitfinex, to buy up those other cryptocurrencies.
Technical analysis from CoinDesk also predicted this dip yesterday, before Bitcoin had dropped below $6,000:
So, going by the technicals alone, it seems safe to say that BTC is likely to find acceptance below the February low of $6,000 soon…. BTC could well close (as per UTC) below $6,000 (February low) in the next day or two, and maybe extend the decline from the May high of $9,990 towards $5,000 in the next few weeks.