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RE: The lies we tell ourselves - the gambler's fallacy

in #psychology8 years ago (edited)

Very true.

There is a really low chance of getting 27 blacks in a row starting from the next spin. But if we already know there were 26 blacks, the chance of the next spin will be black is about 48.6% (if we have only one 0). It is two different thing.

The human brain was designed to recognize patterns and react to that. We needed it to survive in the nature. But sometimes we recognize false patterns especially in gambling.

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The chance of getting 27 blacks in a row is the same chance as getting any of the 67,108,863 other combinations of red and black. People put an emphasis on streaks because it has order where they expect disorder. Wikipedia has a nice proof showing that it makes no difference what comes before.

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