Why Are We Oblivious to the Obvious? - Don't Be A Victim of Normalcy Bias!

What, me worry?
Image Credit: Cecilia Wessels/The Canadian Press via AP

If I told you that a very commonly held state of mind could result in your death, you'd probably want to do something about it right?

NORMALCY BIAS

Normalcy bias or normality bias, as it is also called, is that very common yet deadly mental state in which we underestimate both the possibility of danger as well as its potential to cause direct, personal harm to ourselves.

It's an odd, irrational belief that just because nothing bad has happened before, it never will and it's typical in those who have never experienced disasters or worst case scenarios. Imagine the proverbial ostrich sticking its head in the sand.

Ever wonder why, even though it was obvious Vesuvius was about to blow its top, the residents of Pompeii went about their daily routines as if it was no big deal? Why did thousands of people refuse to leave New Orleans as Hurricane Katrina bore down on them? Why did so many Jews stay put in Nazi Germany despite increasing discrimination and persecution?

Admittedly, it's hard to grasp the terrifying ramifications of, for example, civil war, famine, or a major earthquake and it seems easier to ignore unpleasant information than face it head on. Yet this short-term mental comfort has a great price. Normalcy bias has likely proved fatal for countless thousands or even millions of people over the centuries.

Ignorance is bliss…..until it isn't.

Image - Lucy Chian, unsplash.com

Patrick Henry made reference to normalcy bias before the term even existed: "We are apt to shut our eyes against a painful truth, and listen to the song of that siren till she transforms us into beasts. Is this the part of wise men, engaged in a great and arduous struggle for liberty? Are we disposed to be the number of those who, having eyes, see not, and having ears, hear not, the things which so nearly concern their temporal salvation? For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst, and to provide for it."

In the 2001 movie Nowhere in Africa, the true story of a Jewish couple's 1938 escape from Nazi Germany, Walter Redlich desperately tries to convince his father to flee with them, yet his father's response is classic normalcy bias with words to the effect that 'we Germans are reasonable and intelligent people', 'this is the land of Goethe', 'this Hitler thing will blow over quickly'. He died at the hands of the Nazis, as did the rest of the family who chose not to heed Walter's advice.

In the Bible, it says, “A prudent man foresees danger and takes refuge, but the simple do nothing and suffer because of it”.
-Proverbs 22:3

There are other common mindsets that exacerbate normalcy bias such as;

Herding instinct - We tend to act in accordance with people around us and follow their lead, even though there are countless examples of how foolish and destructive this can be.

Bounded Rationality - A complicated way of saying it's just not possible for us to know everything about everything, therefore we tend to rely on our own limited interpretations, however incomplete they may be.

Confirmation Bias - The tendency to interpret information in a way that confirms our preconceived ideas and to ignore anything to the contrary. Confirmation bias refuses to be confused with the facts!

Misinformation by the mass media, which tends to hype things that are trivial while ignoring or even lying about the real threats, only adds to the problem. Ignorance of history and its lessons and how they apply to us is another factor.

OVERCOMING NORMALCY BIAS

First of all, you must admit that, at least to some degree, you probably have it. Be willing to face your worst fears. Imagine some worst case scenarios. Write out the possible consequences. Then take whatever steps are logical and practical.

Even if you're not a history buff, take a look at a few historical timeless and compare, for example Nazi Germany with what's been going on in the U.S. over the last 20 years, or check out the fall of Rome. As Mark Twain said, 'History doesn't repeat, but it does rhyme'.

No one has a crystal ball into the future, but we don't really need one when much of the information we need is all around us right here in the present, and in the lessons of the past.

Instead of saying 'it can't happen here' say 'it can and what if it does' and then make preparations as to what you can do now to protect yourself and your loved ones. Be prepared to have most people think you belong in the tin-foil hat club and to either laugh at you or think you need to just chill out.

SURVIVE AND THRIVE

While many have perished due to normalcy bias, the good news is there have been many who survived because they were willing to face a worst case scenario and had the courage to do something about it no matter what anyone said and no matter how foolish they looked.

Be brave. Be bold. Face your fears. Take things step by step and don't get overwhelmed.
Be willing to endure a little inconvenience now for the preservation of your future and quality of life.

Your great, great grandkids may not get a chance to thank you personally, but isn't kinda' nice to know that yours will be the old photo they point to in the family album and say,
“That's the smart one, you know, the one we owe our very existence to!”?

Survive! Thrive! Triumph! You can do it! Start now and don't look back!

Image Levi Guzman - unsplash.com

References

Brown, Eric D. "Normalcy Bias and You", http://ericbrown.com/normalcy-bias-and-you.htm, June 3 2015.

Inglis-Arkell, Esther , "The frozen calm of normalcy bias". Gizmodo., May 2, 2013.

Moss, Anna. "What Is Normalcy Bias and Why Is It So Dangerous?" SelfGrowth. May 23, 2017.

Resman, "How to Limit Your Normalcy Bias", Resilient Man, http://resilientman.com/normalcy-bias-enemy-within/ Dec 2013

Roxburgh, Charles, "The Use and Abuse of Scenarios", http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-use-and-abuse-of-scenarios