New Voters and Late-Breakers.

Another key thing that makes me think Trump is going to win going away is the new registrant figures in states like Pennsylvania. Trump has attracted a stampede of new voters and in states where there is party affiliation these new registrants are overwhelmingly republican. These new voters are not on the political radar of the pollsters or punditry. I think the media will be talking about how surprisingly large this herd of new voters came out of the woodwork to vote for Trump based on what Trump has actually accomplished.

Many people have gotten used to his abrasive personality and judge him differently four years after he gave up running his businesses to lead our country. These first-time voters saw the political game as a farce and apathetically sat on the sidelines. Now that the nature of the game has changed with this Black Swam presidency, they want to get into the game and help move the ball down the field and push back against the Swamp Rats who have attempted every dirty trick in the book to knock Trump out of the game they see him winning.

The uninformed squishes

To say that there is always a segment of totally uninformed section of the squishy swing vote is nothing new, but every election there are people who break late. Joe cannot afford to lose them and I think the Hunter scandal adds lightning and thunder to the storm cloud that has been gathering over Biden for a long time. He's been leaking black and Hispanic voters in a downpour as they learn the details of his Crime Bill. Or perhaps even more simply, that HE was the one who wrote it.

These details may only come in tiny droplets to that uninformed swing voter, but even more, the constant thunder simply darkens the sky around the candidate in their view. Their general sense turns on the candidate and they run for cover. -Usually for the incumbent. I think that the memory of a booming economy and peace in the world prior to Covid still lingers in the minds of most Americans, and while many dislike Trump's personality as much as I do, they remember that the Dems spent three years smearing and investigating him and came up with nothing; an exoneration in their mind.

We always joked on the campaign trail that none of the swing vote started paying attention until after Labor Day. Joe has been AWOL and doing nothing to help himself except by being unseen. If people see him nowadays, he looks like a doddering old fool who has spent a lifetime in politics achieving nothing but enriching himself through corruption.

What little info reaches that uninformed voter is repulsive, and that is usually all it takes. When both candidates are repulsive, they just stay home rather than just running off the cliff.

Trump's base couldn't be more enthusiastically motivated to vote for him, and Biden's base is only motivated to vote against Trump, but they aren't the least bit enthusiastic about voting for Biden. I think we'll see terrible turnout numbers for the Dems. They either believe the polls that Biden doesn't need their vote, or don't like Biden enough to show up and pull the lever for him.