A week from now is the Presidential debate

I honestly can’t remember a higher stakes debate. This has the potential to end the election for Joe Biden, and has the potential to make a path to winning MUCH more difficult for Donald Trump. Here are my thoughts on the state of the race and how this debate plays into it:

1. I see a lot of people saying “If Joe Biden goes out there and face plants they’re gonna swap him out at the convention”. I don’t think there’s any chance of that happening. Biden could literally fall all over himself on stage and you still have no plausible mechanism for removing him. The delegates are all bound to him (so you can’t beat him for the nomination), he’s not voluntarily quitting, and he especially won’t voluntarily quit if it means his last public moment was face planting in the debate. Biden/Harris is the ticket, the only way that doesn’t happen is if there’s a major medical episode that gives Joe a plausible excuse other than dementia.

2. That being said, Donald Trump has to do something that he did very well in 2016: Make this debate about his opponent. The most important part of that is DO NOT INTERRUPT JOE BIDEN WHILE HE IS TALKING! In their debates in 2020 Trump constantly saved Biden by interrupting just as Biden was visibly losing his train of thought. It was probably the difference in the election, apart from fraud. If you let Biden speak for a minute straight in a format where he has to think quickly, the chances that there’s a drug cocktail strong enough to save him are small.

3. The issues to champion are obvious: Inflation, the border and crime. Don’t talk about anything else for anything longer than you absolutely have to, and pivot there every time you can. Biden’s approval on inflation is 35.5%, on immigration is 32%, and on crime is 39.3%. Those are all HORRIBLE numbers, and though there are other issues where he polls worst these are the top 3 where he polls in the 30s. Hammer them at every turn, contrast with your four years, and make him own his record.

4. The moderators will be disgraceful and their questions will be biased, it’s important that you don’t answer their questions and instead talk about what YOU want to talk about. I hope he explicitly got agreement from them that he gets to use his response time however he wants, as much as they’ll never live up to it anyways. This is going to be the biggest platform in history for a debate, and you cannot allow your opponents in the media to dictate the terms.

5. If Biden doesn’t face plant, it’s going to cause him to rise in the polls. I expect the electoral map would get a lot more competitive if he actually turns in a good performance. I can’t imagine that happening, but truthfully I couldn’t imagine it in 2020 and he managed to survive twice without any mortal wounds. He’s much worse now, but we have to allow for the chance that the White House pharmacist pulls a rabbit out of the hat. That’s why Trump needs to have a great performance in his own right, so that he can be convincing on this platform and mitigate the damage of a good Biden performance.

6. That being said, ONE true senior moment will define the campaign for the entire summer, and I consider the chances of that happening fairly high. It is why Trump needs to be quiet when Biden is talking, CNN turning off his mic will actually benefit him. If that happens they will hide Biden for the rest of the campaign and pray that their “turnout operation” is enough. But the damage will be done and we will be heading for a landslide.

7. The bottom line is that the whole strategy for the race after June 27th is dependent on what happens June 27th. If Biden is competent, you ramp up the messaging on the policy failures and the way people are hurting. If he’s incompetent, make that the whole campaign. Either way there’s a path to victory, but the campaign needs to be strategic in how they move forward after the debate.