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Oooof.... making predictions and ideas of what to expect for the future.... well, to paraphrase a quote from somewhere by someone.... it is easier to make predictions about the far off or immediate future and dangerous and unwise to make any predictions for the time period in between!

However, in the interests of foolhardiness, I will give some shots at some predictions both grand and less grand in scale and scope for this coming year. I had some thoughts and ideas on how to lay out this post... but in the end, I settled on these three titles: Idealistic, Pragmatic and Certain.

So, accompanied by some hopefully vaguely relevant songs from the recent Frozen 2... which is really quite on my mind at the moment...

Idealistic

Global

I would like to think that 2020 is the year that the marked the resolution of this idiocy around what to do with the climate change. To be honest, moving to new technologies that don't involve burning stuff and boiling water in huge centralised locations whilst dumping pollution into the air without needing to care about it... well, let's just say that in any other field... old technology that dumps crap on everyone else whilst making owners rich would have been dead a long time ago! So, here's to the idealist expectation that 2020 would mark a turning point in how we've suffered from a lack of statesman-like leadership and division and misdirection from vested interests who have turned us against each other whilst they drain the profits from a corpse.

2020 promises to be a relatively interesting year with the American elections coming up... and that will have profound consequences for the rest of the world. My idealist expectation is that it will just go smoothly, and American domestic parties will heal their rifts and come together for the good of the world... and outside foreign powers will decide to not meddle in the domestic politics of other nations.... just because it isn't nice?

On the cryptocurrency front, fiat stablecoins will make the headlines whilst other existing stablecoins will compete with alternatives like Libra to become the dominant reserve currency of the world... or if nothing else, to break the stranglehold of the US Dollar as the default reserve. Will people choose for a decentralised currency like Bitcoin, or a government digital fiat or a corporate multinational Libra?

Personal

I expect that I will be getting more sleep in 2020... as the youngest child should hopefully be exiting her need for a parent to come and calm her in the night... every night. Meanwhile, I expect that I will find all the time to discover new things together with the girls, whilst keeping the house in order whilst my wife continues with her time-consuming new job.... whilst keeping my own violin skills up to scratch!

I will need a new phone at some point in this upgrade cycle... the prospect of a 5G compatible phone is pretty damn enticing.. as is the idea of upgrading my laptop!

Pragmatic

Global

Haha... who am I kidding??!?!!?!... I'm still of the view that unless a first-world country collapses or suffers a major catastrophic disaster, it will be business as usual in respect to climate change. The idea that we can privatise profits to a small number of individuals in the world whilst dumping the expense sheet onto the whole population is quite astounding! When we can see pollution (ie, landfill) it is terrible... when we can't see it, we pretend it doesn't exist! It will change... but perhaps not in 2020...

American elections... well, it will be a pivotal moment for the whole world. Like it or not, we look to the Americans for leadership and to be the "shining light". However, it has always been the case that states do what is necessary for their own interests on the international stage.... now with Russia and China rising up, America has less leeway to be shining and more demand to be a touch more ruthless. I'm afraid that we might just live in interesting times...

On the cryptocurrency front... I suspect that at least in the short term, people will feel more confident in the government fiat. The case against the decentralised versions like Bitcoin is strong... most people just are NOT willing to take personal responsibility for their own wealth, with the decentralised versions we have no arbiter to complain to. This just leaves the governmental fiat or the corporate Libra... I am a much bigger fan of the government than I am of multinational companies.

Personal

Again ha... I always think that I'm going to get more sleep sometime after first becoming a father... it never seems to happen. Time also flies and I know that I will be struggling to keep everything all together... however, I like to hope that I can prioritise the growth of the next generation, to help them discover new and cool things in everything that they come across... never be bored, always inquisitive and always curious!

I might skip this coming generation of phones... 5G looks like it will be built out onto a non-integrated component of the chip from Qualcomm... which is terrible news for power consumption and efficiency... the last time that they did this, there was a disaster year of phones on the Android side of things. Last gen will be just fine.. or hang out one more year!... and do I really need a new laptop?

Certainty

Global

There will be endless debate about whether or not 2019-2020 was the end of the decade (it wasn't...)... and how to pronounce 2020... will it be twenty-twenty or will it be two thousand and twenty. I am betting on 20-20 as that will lead to endless hindsight jokes which will be the main focus of most leading news stories.... in fact, by sheer number of mentions, it will be THE most important news story... bar nothing!

Personal

I know that the girls will be obsessed by something completely new... at the moment it is My Little Pony and Frozen 2... but this will change! Thankfully enough, I get pretty interested in the things that they've been interested in so far... however, I guess that will be changing soon as the older one gets closer to her teen years. I'm just not into boys and makeup....

I expect to be still happily married and still proud of my girls... unless there is something brewing that I've completely overlooked... aaaahhhh.. the folly of oblivious assumptions! At the very least, I expect that will delude myself for just one more year...

Speaking of delusions... I'm pretty sure that this will be the last year of Santa for the oldest girl. There were already suspicions on her part... it may be time to induct her into the secret conspiracy... the Order of the Santa... I will have to think of a secret code handshake....