Biden vs Trump WaPo head to head.

A lot of people have been mentioning this Washington Post head to head poll of Biden v. Trump. I'd just note that this poll has been consistently a large outlier of the race in Trump's favor. Biden generally beats Trump in 2024 head to head polls.

I've not been focusing too much on the head to heads of the general election. The election isn't for a year and a half. That's an eternity.

I won't say that Trump can't win again- that's foolish, he's already won once- but generally speaking I think he's the weakest candidate the Republicans could nominate. His legal issues are only going to worsen at this point. He's got four active criminal investigations and he has an active civil trial for rape and defamation. For the most part voters don't approve of his behavior in these legal matters and on the margin indictments and convictions would hurt him.

To me the most informative polling is of the people that dislike both Trump and Biden. What they do is largely going to decide the 2024 election. In 2016, these individuals generally broke towards Trump. In 2020 they broke towards Biden. So far for 2024 they are breaking again towards Biden. If I see those voters shifting to Trump I'll start to worry, but until then I'm cautiously optimistic- an incumbent president going against a former incumbent president that he beat, I think he has the advantage.