UK General election to be called for 2018

OK, so the title isn't true - I'm sorry for the obvious clickbait. However! I'm about to lay down some beastly arguments which as to why my title will one day very soon become true.

Theresa May is fucked. She's acting as though she won the landslide she gunned for, but she very clearly did not. This has not gone amiss on her 316 MPs. She promised a ferocious, grizzly bear majority of 150 seats. She returned a pathetic little sausage dog minority, barely strong enough to hold its own back. They are livid. Not least of which those would-be-party- leader-hopefuls-if-it-weren't-for-the-fact-that-Theresa's-shit-campaign-nearly-cost-them-their-seats, such Amber Rudd and Justine Greening.

Why then have they not sent her on her bike? Ask yourself another question. Why would they? Strategically - why would they? At the moment they have other priorities, the first of which chilling the fuck out - literally. Following the EU referendum, and bitterly fought general election, MPs are exhausted and a leadership election will set of a chain of events which can most definitely wait until after the end of Parliamentary recess, come September. Will the new session mark the Reckoning of May? Will her government come tumbling down under the weight of the replenished beast of the Parliamentary Conservative party, red in the face fury? Probably not, I think we can put the red faces down to classic British sun burn.

May's most prominent associates will keep a low profile in the hope that, if they're quiet enough, the public will forget they were associated with the embarrassing ordeal, and that maybe they can keep their jobs when the new leader is ushered in. Goves and Borises of the party will strut around gleefully, secure in the knowledge that, having never been in May's inner fold, they remain immune from her poison chalice. Their day is just around the corner.

Meanwhile, May will be left without friends or authority, soaking up all the residue of negative public opinion which the campaign generated. Once the public have got used to the idea that the conservative party consists of her and her alone, she’ll be pushed aside and a new, fresh face will be ushered in to the rescue.

This could theoretically take months, maybe even a year. But the government is under some time pressure. May has bought the support of the DUP, but political authority is a scarce resource in the UK. The billion pound price tag has paid for survival, and nothing more. The DUP will support her in key votes – the Queen’s speech and the Budgets. In terms of the day-to-day workings of parliament, May does not command a majority in the House of Commons. Do not expect any remotely controversial legislation to be put to a vote. Hence why policies such as the legalisation of fox hunting, the expansion of grammar schools and the so-called ‘dementia tax’ were left out of the Queen’s speech. Thus, by the end of 2019, when the first 750million in extra spending is sent to Northern Ireland, it will have been done so that the government could achieve precisely nothing. All the while, Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour gains traction as, for the first time, he and his party’s approval rating have exceeded the Government’s.

Thus we can expect timetable roughly along these lines. Parliament will reconvene in September, Theresa May can expect to have her position challenged at some point a few months later and a new, fresh face will have replaced her sometime around Christmas. What happens next is a delicate balancing act. Whilst the Conservatives will want to give the public a chance to get used to their new leader and PM, they will also want to capitalise on the coveted honeymoon period whereby new party leaders generally enjoy a short period of popularity with the electorate (essentially the time before which the leader can do anything controversial). With a bit of strategic thinking and a considerable amount of luck, they will call a general election within about a year from now, at a time which maximises their chances of getting a workable majority and breaking the political deadlock.

Whether another conservative majority really is on the horizon is a question for another article. As to the longevity of the government, don’t be fooled by May’s blissful ignorance. This government is an interim solution a general election result that very few people anticipated.

Would love to hear your thoughts, please comment any of your own insights below!