Hey, nice article - good read.

I think war is probably very unlikely. It is surprisingly rare that countries have gone to war over resources in the past.

Basically, we know war is very expensive especially in the modern age with high tech, damaging, costly weapons. Unforeseen consequences causes costs to mount up indefinitely (see Al Qaeda/ISIS). For this reason it is unlikely that the economic gains from the ocean will be enough to justify a war on a cost-benefit analysis.

Wars aren't generally caused by the prospect of economic gain alone. Usually its some ugly ideology - whether it be religion, nationalism, perhaps some skewed understanding of one's country being a force for good in the world, caught in a struggle against evil (see Blair in Iraq).