India and Pakistan on the brink of conflict

The national strategy can not be allowed to fall victim to nationalist passions who are eager to march to a devastating and possibly uncontrollable war, assuming that it will avoid the use of nuclear weapons

Ankit Panda

India and Pakistan are on the brink of their most serious military confrontation since 2002. After years of terrorist attacks, organized by Pakistan-based militant groups, India lost its patience after the bombing of a bomb an army truck on February 14, which killed 40 Indian soldiers.

The answer? An airstrike on what allegedly was a training camp led by Jaish-e-Muhammad, the group that claimed the assault authorship. This retaliation was immediately celebrated in India after being seen as a muscle story with the message that New Delhi will no longer tolerate the secretive encouragement of Pakistani terrorist groups.

But the attack was perceived by Islambadi as out of control. India described the crack as preventative, and driven by very specific information, which spoke of a credible emergency threat. New Delhi, stressed that the targets were "non-military", and that it was not intended to launch a war.

Meanwhile, the version of the Pakistani events was very different, with the Pakistani military claiming that India had achieved nothing but bombarding the leaves in the forest. There is another element to understand India's crackdown and Pakistan's response.

New Delhi was avenged of a less-than-targeted attack that took place in Kashmir in September 2016, under what he called a "surgical blow" in Pakistani-administered Kashmir to destroy the bases used by terrorists.

Pakistan ignored that attack, preventing the outbreak of a crisis, such as what we are seeing unfolding today. But after the Indian attacks this week, Pakistan reacted differently. At a news conference, Pakistan's top military spokesman dismissed the idea that he was caught, and promised India an appropriate response at the right time and place.

On Wednesday, the situation escalated, as Pakistani F-16 fighter planes carried out their attacks. Both sides re-released their own versions of the targets that had been struck, with Pakistan trying to make it clear that its reaction was proportional vengeance for Indian attacks.

One factor that exacerbated the crisis was the loss of Indian aircraft.

An Indian Air Force pilot, forced to sail out of his MiG-21 aircraft, is detained in Pakistan. The Pakistani Army published views showing that the pilot enjoys full health, in order to avoid criticism of the Indian pilots' maltreatment during the Cargo War of 1999.

India's claim that Pakistan's attacks targeted "military installations" in revenge for New Delhi's calibrated and "non-military" assault will increase pressure on the Indian government, which will now retaliate against Islamabad.

This would mark a third round of escalation of tensions, raising the possibility of a comprehensive coil, which would jeopardize the takeover of two countries on the brink of a nuclear war, in the conditions when the two countries own such weapons.

But escalation is not automatic, and will depend on the steps that political leaders will take in the coming days. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is facing special hurdles in domestic politics, with general elections in the country just a few weeks away.

What is dangerous is whether the Indian political leadership comes to the conclusion that it should be retaliated, given Pakistan's intention to strike its military bases as it has publicly said. Meanwhile, the Indian public is subject to a highly nationalistic media environment that is already addressing the events of recent days as a precursor to a conflict.

Under this environment, the decision of the Modes to exercise restraint would require a great political courage. Such courage is not unheard of by political leaders, but may come at a real cost, especially in the ballot box. Other possible ways to alleviate this crisis include the interference of third powers.

The United States is currently occupied with the summit in Hanoi, Vietnam, while China and Russia are considered to be very biased towards Pakistan and India. Numerous countries have made public statements, calling on both sides to be self-contained.

What will happen next depends on political decision-makers in India. This conflict can find a relief valve, but this must happen soon. Above all, national strategy can not be allowed to fall victim to nationalist passions who are eager to march to a devastating and possibly uncontrollable war, assuming that it will avoid the use of nuclear weapons.