Can The Rise Of China Be Peaceful? Can It One Day Oppose The USA In Terms Of Being The Next Global Hegemon? - A Research Paper - NAK Research Series #1

naufil (46)in #politics • 6 years ago (edited)

In this essay I will be analyzing Chinas position in the current world order, the reconstruction of Chinese foreign policy and whether this rise can be seen as being peaceful or a supposed Chinese agenda to one day overthrow the United States as the global hegemon.

With the Cold War ending in 1989 and the subsequent collapse of the Soviet Union, the world for the first time in it’s history moved towards a unipolar world, with the United States standing at the top. The two great wars had helped the United States to increase its influence East, by first giving out loans via the Marshal Plan, which amounted to nearly $140 billion as of September 2017. United States economic assistance and diplomatic ties following the two wars helped it emerged as the single most hegemonic nation in the world and questions to who could one day counter their influence, since it wasn’t the Soviet Union, come forward and that is where we scrutinize upon Chinas role in the world order, both economically and diplomatically, to help us identify whether it could one day stand opposing the United States, and whether this would be at all peaceful at all.

Chinas rise in the new world order is regarded as one of the most significant changes in turn of the century global relations. Over the course of merely 30 years we see China shift its strategy from a very isolationist state, caring about only its domestic affairs, to a great regional power and still growing. Even so, this unprecedented economic growth does not ensure Chinas role as a leading global power, not as yet anyways.

To achieve the target of becoming a global hegemon, China has to do what the US had done with the aid of its manifest destiny centuries ago. They need to first dominate their own regional sphere in order to be seen as “THE” regional superpower and only then can it lay its eyes on the crown. The possibility of China emerging as the next regional superpower within the Asia-Pacific region it would have to overcome other great emerging powers such as India, which is expected to be the third largest economy in the world in 20 years and the likes of Japan which is already outdoing China in technological areas. With the new world order in place, states cannot expect to outdo each other by using hard power i.e. conventional war, hence the states need to battle each other out diplomatically and economically until one emerges as the clear victor, which is becoming increasingly difficult to tell by the day.

Where Chinese diplomacy is concerned, it should be noted that since the 1970’s China has adopted a very proactive role in the world politics. It has joined over 300 international organizations over the course of the last 25 years and the number continues to grow. Their active participation in the United Nations as a Permanent 5 member as well their involvement in the World Trade Organization has put China at the heart of world diplomacy. Many Chinese foreign policy makers have shown the desire for China to be an active member in deciding many important decisions around the world, including the issue of breaching state sovereignty when it comes to humanitarian interventions. China hence, by expanding its influence through its diplomats, has started providing an alternative to the United States in terms of diplomatic help and aid. Where countries that are not inclined to go with the US are seen taking help from China.

This diplomacy tactic coupled with the Chinese traditions of peace and harmony sing a tale of peace and prosperity, which is in no way the Hollywood side of things but is definitely a song worth noting. With the American involvement in Korea, Vietnam and Iraq, the world has started looking at the US with a keen and careful eye and where the vacuum of trust starts to begin, China enters to fill that void. With President Xi as the spearhead of China, China has adopted an image of wanting peace in the world. During a July 2013 summit meeting with Barak Obama, President XI downplayed any talk of a Pacific rivalry, noting “the vast Pacific Ocean has enough space for the two large countries of China and the United States.” This is a direct indication of Chinese foreign policy as it stands in the world today where they want to be seen as the peace makers of the world by favoring multilateral security in the world as it is today. The pertinent question then arises whether China would always settle for the position of the underdogs in the world or later on when China does become strong enough will adopt a different strategy, the likes of which can be contrasted with the United States in the Western hemisphere.

If we are to use a theory to describe the Chinese rise and its sub sequential quest for power, offensive realism might have an insight to offer. With the United States standing as the sole global hegemon right now, there is an absence of power politics in the world. However, if China keeps on growing at the pace it is right now it would definitely try to dominate Asia the way US did in the West. The United States however, would see this rise as a direct threat to their own position in the world and would go to all lengths to counter balance Chinese activity on the world front. (2) If that holds true, then most of Chinas neighbors, including India and Vietnam, would start joining with the United States in order to contain China as it would provide a bigger threat to them from the onslaught. Thus, the world would go into an intense security competition the likes of which were seen during the Cold War.

The issue then arises when the conflict of interests become more than the two nations can handle. Many believe that the only way China’s rise can eventually lead into a bloody one, is if the United States does not provoke it. As it stands China considers Taiwan to be part of its homeland and unification remains a key political goal for Beijing. The growing centrality of nationalism to the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party makes Taiwan’s future essential to the regime’s survival. China has made clear that it will use force if Taiwan declares independence. Consequently, president-elect Trump’s telephone call with the leader of Taiwan and his seemingly cavalier attitude toward upending the United States’ long-standing Taiwan policy are deeply misguided. If Taiwan declares independence, war between China and Taiwan is the likely outcome. Even moving too far in that direction could fuel a major crisis. And if the United States actually would come to Taiwan’s defense, then conventional war between China and the United States also becomes more likely. Conventional war between two nuclear powers increases the probability of nuclear war. (3)

Hence it is important for the United States to look at China as an ally and not interfere in its affairs as that would lead to a direct conflict. The combination of stunning economic growth and unpredictable political governance causes deep concerns about China among the nations in the world. The Chinese leadership has realized the urgency to calm down these concerns and to build a supportive international environment for its ascendancy. To make its rise less a threat, the Chinese government has sponsored many PR events, such as exhibitions in foreign countries, promoting Chinese language programs, and so on. But most importantly, the Chinese premier Wen Jiabao put forward the thesis of "China's peaceful rise" in his speech to a Harvard University audience in December 2003. Under this thesis, there are several points: First, China's development depends upon and in return will contribute to the world peace; second, China will resort to peaceful means for development; third, China's development will rely more on its own resources and market; fourth, China is prepared for a long-term process of hard work, even several generations, for economic prosperity. Hence, even as China has achieved its economic development, it will not most probably not seek hegemony in the world or come out as a threat to any country.

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