The Bear and the Maiden fair

In this post, I will try to give short and conclusive information on the state of Hungary, 2 weeks prior the national elections. A look at why things happen as they do, and what can we expect. I will use a lot of outside material in the form of videos.

Most European has some sort of idea of Orbán Viktor, or as better known, Viktor Orban, and his firm opposition to his former patron: Soros Györögy aka George Soros. But this article will focus on a different aspect of the power struggle in Hungary.

For courtesy's sake: I am Hungarian, 27yr old, who ran in the 2014 elections both as a parliamentary and major candidate.

Orbán Viktor

The current form of the country came to be after the decline of the Hungarian People's Republic at '89, which gave way to the Republic of Hungary, and under the guidance of Orban, in its most recent form: Hungary. All of these three steps changed the constitution deeply. 

Taking away the word Republic from the name of the country was a precursor of what’s to come.

To have a chronological overview of the Orban regime and the development of the illiberal mindset, take a look at the following YouTube video, made by 444 Hungarian news portal:

(Don’t forget to turn on the superb English CC)

2018 Elections

Today the country is led by Orban’s party, FIDESZ. with 2/3 majority in the parliament. Which they gained in the 2014 national elections with a mere 2 million votes of a country of 10 million souls. Every country has it’s own beautiful way of voting – if they do vote at all. Basically what it means is the ruling party doesn’t require to meet, to see, or even to smell the opposition; they can change any law on their own, including the constitution. And so they did.

The next election in April is a close call. The ruling party of Orban is in the lead which shouldn’t come as a surprise knowing that every power favours itself. I like to look at the rulers, parties, and countries as living organisms. In this dehumanized, and down to earth viewpoint we can actually see, and accept their behaviour as it is. Survivalist. Of course, the ruling party will change the laws and redraw the electoral districts, if it means that the organism can function for another 4 years. Of course, it works in its own interest! – A good comparison would be the nuclear arms race of Kim Jong-un. He doesn’t want to protect his people, nor to nuke the USA out of spite – what he wants is to have the upper hand, so no one will mess with him, so he survives. (I’m looking forward to his meeting with Trump)

In the game of thrones, you win or you die.

In the meantime, the Hungarian opposition tries to organize the voting process to win debatable districts by giving way to the most prominent candidate from whatever party she or he may come from. This way anti-Orban votes have one clear choice to vote for, and their forces are united. It meant to lower the parliamentary power of FIDESZ, but the self-interest conflicts with the common goal. Because as the big fish the small plays the same game: Survival. If opposing party A steps down in favour of B, A will have fewer votes to its name, and fewer funds for the coming for 4 years. Not to mention the fake parties popping up left and right. – A masterfully crafted system, that favours only the previous winner.

Changing World

The next elections will be conducted on 8th of April, 2018 and the result will be critical to the future of Hungary, and to a greater extent to Europe, and the World at large. All of the latest elections in Europe were important in the greater geopolitical scene, but maybe not just as important as Hungary’s.

Why – you may ask – why is this small country with a candy-floss Putin on top of it matters?!

Orban or Hungary by themselves won’t change the World, but the World is changing on its own, and at the moment, Hungary is an important cog in it. A cog that is inside EU, and NATO, yet turned by some other forces:

(Don’t forget to turn on the superb English CC)

 

The similarities of the post-Soviet Russia and Hungary should be obvious if you watched these two videos. As you can see Russia and Putin are also acting in a survivalist way. Putin is willing to blow up his own people to gain casus belli and political power. Russia fears of being cornered by enemies on all sides. Understandable.

Some people would start to point fingers, to Putin for his crimes against humanity, or Orban for selling out his homeland but that is not advised. You may think that politics are in the people’s head, and heart, but to be truthful, it’s more so in their land and the features of that land. To understand the Russian mindset in-depth, we have to look at Russia’s flawed geology:

Conclusion

No country inside EU and NATO is as close to Russia diplomatically as Hungary. If Orban will win the next election, he will rot both of these institutes and the western set of values to the best of his knowledge. Not because he hates it – hell he was a big advocate of it – but because he wants to stay on his throne. The European Union doesn't favour kings at the heart of the continent, but Russia could just use one under the Carpathian mountains.