Which Way Forward?

A week from today, the American News Media will be in its second day of parsing the results of the 2018 Midterm Elections. As with any first-term President, the elections are often seen as a referendum on that President. With President Trump there is an added feature. Trump's policies and actions have spawned a resistance that has not been seen since the Civil Rights Movement, or the Anti-War Movement. The Midterms will be a way to gauge this diverse coalitions power.

The three outcomes fall into three categories; a best case scenario, a more likely scenario, and a worst-case scenario.

The best case scenario for the resistance would be the "Blue Tsunami". In this scenario, Democrats take both the United States House and Senate. The next step here would be to pursue a path of principled obstruction, Trump would be unable to advance most of his legislation, and the efforts by the American Right to pack the courts would be stymied. I could also see popular, progressive, legislation being out forth. Much of this, however, would be slowed down by reactionary members of Congress or vetoed.

The a more likely scenario is a "Blue Wave", Democrats take back the United States House, while the Senate remains Republican. The scenario would be good for the resistance in that the resistance would hold the "Power of The Purse". The United States House is entrusted with legislation that relates to taxes and spending. Trump's efforts to militarize borders, or undo the Affordable Care Act would be stymied by lack of funding or ongoing funding. The House also has the power to impeach, and while Trump himself may be a tempting target, Justice Brett Kavanaugh is more likely a person that a newly Democratic House would see as a better project.

There is the possibility also of a "Blue Trickle". Democrats win seats, but not enough to shift control. Trump would likely spin this to his supporters, especially his rural, reactionary, ones as a case of taking a beating but still standing. Feeling empowered, he would continue to push his agenda harder; mainly on the backs of women, refugees, and the other outgroups that he relies on to rally his base of; white, male, rural, less-educated, lower-middle to lower class voters. This scenario could also further convince younger activists that the political process isn't as feasible for them as in the past.

This is where direct action groups and movements may be able to make gains. These younger activists, now bitten at least twice by a process, may see; mutual assistance, mutual education, mutual communication and even mutual defense as a more effective path of resistance.