Is anybody worried about China selling U.S.treasuries? Reddit红迪网：有没有人担心中国抛售美国债券啊？

Is anybody worried about China selling U.S.treasuries?

Reddit红迪网：有没有人担心中国抛售美国债券啊？
Ajgbaby
As I understand it, China is the largestholder of U.S. debt and Japan is 2nd. Japan is already starting to reduce itstreasury purchases. If China sells off U.S. treasuries that means the yieldswill rise and companies across the country will be less inclined to tacking onmore debt. This comes at a time when the market is already extremely leveragedAND when the fed’s fund rate isincreasing. This will cause cash to dry up in U.S. equities which willslaughter the stock market due to the deleveraging....I’m really not trying to be a contrarian, I’m just wondering if anybody shares this same view?

题主：
据我所知，中国是美国最大的债券持有人，日本是第二大的。日本已经开始减少购买美国国债了。如果中国抛售美国国债的话，国债收益率会上升，这意味着全国各地的公司会更倾向于增持更多的债券。这种情况会发生在市场已经存在极高的杠杆率，而且美联储的基金利率也正在上升的时候。这将导致美国股市的现金流枯竭，而且由于去杠杆化的原因，这会毁掉股市的。。。。。。我真的不想成为一个反向投资者，我只是想知道是不是有人也有同样的观点？
Nick357
China and Japan aren’t the largest holders of US debt. They are the largest foreignholders. The largest holder is the US Govt and then the US Citizens. China ownsonly about 6%.
中国和日本并不是美国国债的最大持有者。他们只是最大的外国持有者。最大的持有者是美国政府，然后是美国公民。中国仅仅持有约6%的美国国债。
dvdmovie1
I am not worried about China selling all ofits treasuries. Am I concerned (and this isn't a new concern, it's been aconcern of mine for some time now) that over the next decade or two theposition of the US on the global stage will erode? Yeah. Am I a bit moreinterested in investing in the emerging market consumer than the US consumer?Yeah, actually.

我不担心中国会抛售掉全部的美国国债。我担心的是：（这也不是一个刚有的担心，我已经担心了有一段时间）未来十年或二十年，美国在全球舞台上的地位会被削弱吗？是的。我对投资新兴市场的消费者比投资美国的消费者更感兴趣吗？实际上，是这样的。
There's a lot of doom porn "financialapocalypse" stuff that people can come up with at any time and if Itotally got into that then I wouldn't want to invest in anything and curl up inthe fetal position in the corner. "OMG will China sell off all of itstreasuries?!?!?" is not a new worry by any means. Will the dollarcollapse?!?!?

任何时候人们都说出很多像“金融启示录”这样的预言，如果我完全陷进去了，那么我就会蜷缩在角落里，不想投资任何东西。“天呐，中国抛售了所有的美国国债？！？！？”无论如何这都不是刚有的一种担忧。美元会崩溃吗？！？！？
There's a lot of things that can causesomeone to essentially have decision paralysis and not want to do anything (orif they listen to Peter Schiff, believe that "gold is the onlysavior" and hoard that) because of the various possible financial crisesthat people can think up.

有很多事情可以让人们决策瘫痪，不想要有任何行动（或者他们会听彼得希夫的话，相信“黄金是唯一的救星”并大量储备），因为人们可以想出各种各样可能发生的经济危机。
注释：彼得·D·希夫，是资深的华尔街预言家，奥地利经济学派的坚定拥护者，尤以对股市、商品、黄金和美元表现的准确预测见长。
So yeah, can things happen? Yes, but theycan happen at any time and I've heard "will China sell all of itstreasuries" on multiple occasions over the last several years. I'm a lotmore worried about a slow continued decline in the US than I am somethinghappening overnight.

所以，事情会发生吗？会，但是任何时候都可能会发生，而且我过去几年在很多场合下都听到过“中国会抛售所有的美国国债吗？”这样的言论。比起一夜之间发生的事情，我更加担心的是美国经济持续缓慢的衰退。
ThisIsTheWater
The majority of US debt is held by uscitizens, not foreign governments

大部分的美国债券在我们美国公民身上呢，而不是外国政府。
ryapric
This should be higher. Of the ~$21T in USdebt, only about $6T is held by ALL foreign entities.

（美国公民和机构持有美国国债）这个数量还要更高些。美国21万亿国债中，外国持有的所有国债只有大约6万亿。
Spcymeatball
selling bulk treasuries/buying CNY does notseem to be something China would want to do.
A rapidly strengthening CNY vs USD wouldhave a similar effect as tariffs on all Chinese exports to US.

大量抛售美国债券，购买人民币债券，这似乎并不是中国想做的吧。
人民币兑美元的汇率快速升值将产生的后果，跟对所有中国出口到美国的产品征收关税一个样。
ImpyKid
Yeah they cant ignore the macroeconomics ofthe situation no matter how badly they want to hurt the US, if they even wantto hurt the US. We have to remember that a lot of China's prosperity is tied tothe US' prosperity too.

是的，无论他们多么想狠狠打击美国，他们都忽略不了宏观经济。我们必须记住，中国的繁荣跟美国的繁荣很大程度上是绑在一起的。
BroadShoulders07
https://pro.creditwritedowns.com/2018/04/china-cannot-use-its-treasury-holdings-as-leverage-heres-why.html
Here’s a great write-up on why China cannot use its UST holdings asleverage.
tl;dr Chinese currency is pegged to thedollar. As a result Chinese purchase of UST are non-discretionary they buydollars and ultimately invest them in UST. Also, current account surplus withUS means they essentially need to buy UST. Market for treasuries is massive andlikely can handle even large scale sale of UST’s by China.

链接这篇文章很好地解释了为什么中国不能利用其持有的美国国债作为杠杆。
文章太长了我没细看。人民币与美元是挂钩的。因此中国购买美国国债并不是随意的，他们购买美元并最终用美元来投资美国国债。同时，美国账户上经常有盈余，这意味着他们根本就需要购买美国国债的。美国国债的市场是很大的，而且就算中国大规模抛售持有的美国国债，情况也是可能得到控制的。
arindale
To be more specific, CHina is the largestforeign government owner of US debt, but they don't own all that much (approx1.18 trillion of about $21 trillion in total US debt) as of Jan 2018.

更具体地说，中国是持有美国国债最多的外国政府，但是截至2018年1月，他们并没有持有很多（在美国约21万亿美元的总债务中占大约1.18万亿美元）。
InTheWhaleRoo
Your cause and affect are way off. If Chinadumps treasuries, someone still has to buy it, and the US gov can buy them inunlimited number.

你们的分析错得离谱。如果中国抛售美国国债，那还是要有人买的，而美国政府可以无限量地购买这些债券。
abasoglu
I wouldn't get too worried about USTreasury sales just yet. If China tried to sell all of its US Treasuries in asudden burst, they would likely be the biggest losers. That's because thesteep, sudden decline in Treasury prices would hit their realized price fortheir sales.

我现在倒是不太担心美国国债被抛售。如果中国试图突然间抛售掉所有的美国国债，那么他们可能是最大的输家。这是因为美国国债价格急剧下跌的话，会影响到他们卖出的实际价格。
jdrvero
Historically speaking, I believe thisresembles the problems we had with japan for a long time in the 1980's. We rana huge trade deficit and they bought tons of treasuries. We survived that,pretty sure we will be fine here too.

从历史上看，我认为这跟1980年代我们与日本长期存在的问题很类似。我们有很大的贸易赤字，而他们购买了我们大量的国债。我们安全渡过了难关，我很确定我们这次也会顺利的。