Crowd Forecasting 14th Malaysian General Election: The Second Update (BN: MPs = 102.2, States = 5.5; PH: MPs = 112.6, States = 5.6)
This is the second update to my first very crude forecast on the results of 14th Malaysian General Election based on internet polling. As of today (07-May-2018), a few more votes have been casted in the four online polls on Cari forum, so I will present here the second update of my forecast based on the latest polling results.
For all polls, significant amount of 'sentimental votes' at two extremes (i.e. zero seat vs. all seats) were observed, so truncated means were presented instead. In three cases (BN parliamentary seats, BN state govts, and PH state govts) , the harmonic mean is significantly lower than arithmetic mean and geometric mean. Therefore, I will take the average value of arithmetic mean and geometric mean as the forecast value for all cases in this update.
Compared to the First Update (BN: MPs = 101.4, States = 5.6; PH: MPs = 111.6, States = 5.6), no significant changes in the predicted values were observed.
Forecast Summary
Barisan Nasional
Parliamentary Seats = 102.2
No. of States to Hold = 5.5
Pakatan Harapan
Parliamentary Seats = 112.6
No. of States to Hold = 5.6
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