SCENARIOS-Will Thailand's political crisis deepen?
For an analysis on Thailand’s political crisis, click [nBKK227649])
BANGKOK, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Plans to submit a petition requesting a royal pardon for Thailand’s fugitive former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra have renewed fears of an intensification of the country’s four-year political crisis.
The United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), whose red-shirted ranks are filled largely by the rural poor, says more than 5 million Thais have signed the petition, which has angered royalists and the middle classes who despise Thaksin.
Analysts say chances of reconciliation in politically polarised Thailand are remote, while every instance of street protests or civil unrest further dents the confidence of investors, deters tourists and hampers economic recovery.
The following are scenarios for the coming months.
ATTEMPT TO SUBMIT PETITION TRIGGERS UNREST
The petition to revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej has sparked anger among anti-Thaksin elements. Both the government and the royalist Peoples Alliance for Democracy (PAD) could try to block its submission, prompting fears of clashes or even military intervention.
Most commentators, however, believe this is unlikely to provide a flashpoint. They say the motive behind the petition is to highlight Thaksin’s mass support and to keep his movement alive. They see only a slim chance a pardon will be granted to the fugitive billionaire, who maintains his graft conviction was politically motivated.
“It does not matter whether a royal pardon will be granted or not. What seems to matter most are the numbers to show how popular Thaksin is,” wrote Bangkok Post columnist Veera Prateepchaikul.
Markets would likely remain unruffled.
ABHISIT CONSOLIDATES RURAL SUPPORT, RETAINS POWER
Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is implementing a wave of economic stimulus measures aimed at winning over the rural poor, Thaksin’s traditional support base, to help him retain power and keep the pro-Thaksin Puea Thai party at bay when new elections take place.
Though he is making progress in reviving the economy, his efforts are unlikely to raise his support significantly among the poor, many of whom remain loyal to Thaksin because of his populist policies while in office.
“Abhisit has grasped how crucial it is to reach out to Thaksin’s power base and try to emulate the populist policies,” said political scientist Prudhisan Jumbala.
“But that won’t be easy and unless the poor see the results of Abhisit’s economic pledges, they won’t be swayed.”
Thailand’s financial markets will continue to underperform their Asian peers if the political impasse is not broken.
