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RE: Introductory Post and AMA (Ask Me Anything) about being a Professional Poker and Daily Fantasy Sports Player
Jesus mate, this is legendary. I can't believe you posted, that is one of my most favourite hands ever. Can't really tell how his bluff or how he gets there fits into a gto strategy? but man he did it with style. Condolences to you for going through such a soul crushing moment.
As for the GTO aspect of his play....it's hard for me to answer completely accurately because I don't have that much experience playing 40-50bb ante HUNL, it's a rare game and is basically only played when you get HU in a tournament. Additionally, the game is played very differently in 2016 than it was in 2007. But I would imagine I have some sort of limping range and a wide value raising range (most of my Ax but I do limp some of them) and am folding <5% of hands due to the ante. After I limp I think Ike raises most of his Ax and all of his broadway hands. This is important, because that means his only gutshots are 23 25 35 (KJ JT KT all raise), and his only other "air" c/c hands are hearts that decided not to c/r, and I think he c/c Qx 4x and his king highs as well.
In 2007 I would likely be cbetting this flop with my entire range after he checks back pre. In 2016, I would likely check some Qx and some 4x back on the flop, reason to bet some Qx on the turn is that since he likely raises most or all of his Ax now my Qx is ahead of almost his entire range so I can bet it freely.
The turn K pairs some of his c/c range and when it goes c/c that eliminates 2 pair from my range.
On the river Q, he needs to bet since he has the nut low, he bets all of his 23 35 25, bets quite a few hearts (likely checks the Jx Tx hearts since they have showdown value), bets his Qx, whatever Ax he has, and probably checks his Kx. after I raise he knows I have no boats but he can have Q4, but from a GTO perspective, since my range is {Qx,bluff}, I pretty much have to commit to calling off Qx otherwise I am folding range.
So I think the deciding factor here should be blockers: he should 3bet hands that don't block my likely Qx hands. I'm probably raising most of my good Qx preflop, and probably limping the Q2-Q6o range. He shoves 6 combos of Q4, and can probably shove a few extra combos of hands like Q9/Q8 that he limped back (let's say he can shove 25 total combos) but knows are ahead of my Qx so he can shove probably about 8-10 bluffs, and I would probably do that with the hands that only have one 2-6 in them (he probably raises 78hh 79hh 89hh and checks river with Tx Jxhh), like 92hh 93hh 95hh 82hh 83hh 85hh 72hh 73hh 75hh. Probably not GTO 3b shove, but very likely that my raising range is weighted too heavily towards bluffs and his rebluff is still +EV.
Appreciate that. Will split up my reply into two posts, one to describe my feelings and one to talk about the strategy aspect.
At the time I wasn't much of a tournament player, I grinded up my roll playing cash games without any tournament success online or live. I remember being extremely nervous and on edge from 27 players down to 6, although it seemed to play out relatively quick from 27 to 10. From 10 to 6 I remember playing really nitty and being scared of busting. One hand in particular with 8 or 9 left where I raised AK, was called by one of the few non pros at the table, he raised me in position on a K high flop, bet again on a K turn, and the river went check check but I was legitimately scared to face a large river bet despite having AK on a KKxxx board with no flushes or likely straights. But once we were down to 6, I was guaranteed over 200k which was twice as much as I had made playing up to that point so I was no longer nervous and just played my best all final table.
When we reached HU, we normally would have chopped instead of playing for 700k when neither of us had nearly that much money at the time, but the WPT didn't allow us to chop or even discuss it. But as stated I was no longer nervous and think Ike was a little rattled at the time. I don't consider myself prescient by any means, am generally bad at predicting the future, but right after the hand I knew he made a great play and knew it would be a big hit on tv and wasn't really soul crushed at all given I had nothing too