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RE: Introductory Post and AMA (Ask Me Anything) about being a Professional Poker and Daily Fantasy Sports Player
@daut44. Welcome brotha. Glad I spoke to you earlier otherwise I probably would of missed this cool intro. I most definitely followed you and I will be bugging you about my Lakers later this season. I dig basketball and I am going to place a long term, high risk bet for the Cavs to win it all like I did this year (man was I sweating when they were down 1-3). Anyways congrats on your post and I look forward to your future blogs. Take it easy man. Oh yea, I am a huge fan of live resin especially moxie710. https://www.instagram.com/explore/tags/moxie710/
I like the concept of the Cavs bet: the East is a joke, they are ~80%+ to make the finals, and are not drawing dead in the finals just based on tougher road in the West for the Warriors (and also injuries), but I do think a healthy Cavs team vs a healthy Warriors team in the finals next year results in a Warriors win >70%. So if you can get better than +300 I like it, worse I don't.
I'll edit my response slightly. I think the cavs are 75% to make the finals when accounting for possible injuries and other teams possibly making acquisitions to increase their chances to make the finals.
I'd guess the Warriors are 80% to make the finals with Duncan retiring and their biggest threat losing its best player directly to them.
I'd guess the Warriors are 75-80% vs the cavs in the finals and any other team is 40% on average vs the Cavs in the finals.
So the cavs % to win is .75(.8.2+.2.6) = .75(.28)=.21 at worst and .75(.8.25+.25*.6)=.24 at best. So I would say +300 or worse is a bad bet, +325 to +375 is iffy and +375 or better is a great bet. What odds did you get on them last year?
Also think Brandon Ingram is a stud. The lakers are just one good big man and a few years of development on their younger players away from being a playoff team again.
Wow this is great analysis. That math and science sure pays off when one puts it to use!! I seriously look forward to your future post and analysis on sports betting. I like Ingram and once he grows into his body I think he will be a beast. I like dlo (AKA "The Snitch") too but I think he needs more speed and lacks some of the athleticism some of the top guards possess in the NBA but he is young and has good court vision and can shoot. I'm excited to see how they play this year. I think ESPN picked them to finish last in the west but I don't think they will. Thanks for the chat.