I Skipped the WSOP Main Event the Last Three Years: $2000 Freeroll to Someone on Steem if I Skip Again Next Year
I first played the main event in 2005 when I was a small stakes poker player with a $2k bankroll. One of my college roommates was messing around on my Pokerstars account and won a seat to the main event, but since it was in my name I had to play it. I busted near the end of day 1 with AQ vs AQ on an AQ7 flop when my opponent backdoored a runner-runner flush.
In 2007 I again busted the main event late day 1 with four of a kind vs a straight flush.
In 2008 I played terribly on day one and was lucky to survive with a few chips, then fought hard for 3 straight days until busting 20 from the money with AA.
In 2009 I made a terrible shove on day 2, 4betting all in over an aggressive player's 3bet with 88 for 40bb. The main event is simply too soft to make thin plays like this, particularly when my opponent had set this up by 3betting relentlessly early on and then settling down and waiting for hands.
In 2010 I never managed to get chips, hung around and survived until late on day 3 when I shoved 9bb with AJo and lost to AQs.
My 2011 experience was similar to 2010: played for a few days, got short, went all in, lost to a better hand.
2012 was similar to 2011: I was short stacked near the bubble, but busted 10 away from the money when my AQo lost to QTs.
In 2013 I lost JJ vs KK small blind vs big blind for about 50bb each late on day 2, which is a pretty standard cooler in those positions and stacksizes.
In the softest big buyin tournament of the year, I have played 8 times without cashing once.
This made me apathetic towards playing it afterwards. But this is a clear mistake. Suppose each year I was 1/6 to make the money -- roughly 10% cashed each year. It's still 23% that I miss the money 8 straight years. I know I've been unlucky and know I could have played a few hands better, but regardless it is a highly profitable tournament to play. While the rate of failure is high (losing $10,000 over 80% of the time), the return on investment remains high, and I probably expect to make upwards of $7,500 by playing any year.
I want to offer a freeroll to Steem Users
I made a freeroll on twitter to incentivize me to play next year. I offered $1k on twitter to a random person who favorites this tweet if I skip the main event next year.
You don't have to upvote or resteem this post, I'm not looking for rewards, just incentive.
Just leave a motivational message in the comments section and if I skip the main event next year I'll give $2,000 worth of bitcoin to someone who does. You can favorite the tweet on twitter too to increase the chance you get something if I am lazy next year.
My name is Ryan Daut and I'd love to have you as a follower. Click here to go to my page, then click 
in the upper right corner if you would like to see my blogs and articles regularly.
I am a professional gambler, and my interests include poker, fantasy sports, football, basketball, MMA, health and fitness, rock climbing, mathematics, astrophysics, cryptocurrency, and computer gaming.
Here's some BTO from an old guy. Let it roll!
The time's real short, you know the distance is long
I'd like to have a jet but it's not in the song
Climb back in the cab, cross your fingers for luck
We gotta keep moving if we're going to make a buck
Let it roll down the highway
Let it roll
p.s. I do not recommend dressing like this.
It's tough soldiering on through variance. I used to play for a living as well. The larger the tournament, the harder it is, honestly. The period between hitting the money will be higher.
I was once busted out of a very large MTT on a situation so ludicrous you'll probably think I'm lying. I got all in with KK on a K83 flop against 22, and it turned and rivered 22. This was no WSOP, but we are talking $250 buy in, $250k guaranteed minimum. It was online, so I have always suspected the possibility of a not-totally-fair dealing algorithm. But, it's gotta happen to someone.
You're right to say that you are probably +EV to enter. The list of losses in past years you noted are, statistically, a tremendous run of bad luck. As you know, to win any MTT like this, you need to get lucky...over and over. Like 1-outing a BD flush in a split hand. Once per day of the event.
I hope you do make it next year and I hope some year I'll be able to justify the likely loss of $10k to join you.
Yea big fields are rough. Instead of being 5% to final table, you might be .1%, and with the top heavy payouts, variance shoots through the roof.
The old backdoor quad 990:1. That's actually never happened to me. The important thing to realize when beats in MTTs like that happen is that even if it didn't there is no guarantee of winning: had my quads won vs a likelier boat or flush in 2007 I'm still probably only 60-70% to cash the tournament as it was for roughly 6x starting stack on day 1 with many players left.
Thanks for the motivation.
As a professional gambler I can see why you're attracted to crypto! Suck it up! As an old co-wroker would say put your big girl panties on and go kick those assholes out of your sandbox (poker arena)
I love it!
Just play it, it's less than 5 bitcoins to enter, and how else are you going to make 4000 bitcoins?
Ouch, rough ride on the variance....poker apathy follows atrophy, maybe adjust your Stakes to the proper Bankroll
What I need to adjust is my mindset, I should be playing very big and very often to stay fresh.
Man, it takes a ton of guts to keep going when you've lost so close to the money so many times. Poker life isn't easy, sometimes your intuition has to battle some really brutal statistical outcomes.
Just keep in mind that a single WSOP win, or even final table appearance, will more than make up for any number of previous losses. If you stay focused and play well, lady luck is gonna pick you eventually.
There are other tournaments, so this isn't the only major event all year. It just so happens in the best tournament of the year I've gone 0 for 8. Most of the other events are skippable, but I need to be playing this one every year, and as you say, good players are more likely to finish towards the top than bad ones and those outweigh the out of the money finishes.
you can still remember the hands you played 12 years ago ? i can't remember the ones i played yesterday... but i guess i had a lot less at stake... if you're good at the game and crapped out 8 times you must surely be due a payout sometime soon?...can't loose forever...
Yes, I remember some of the tables I played at, the memorable hands of each tournament, reads I had, really vivid stuff.
I play some chess for fun and it always amazes me that chess players can rattle off move sequences so quickly, play games blindfolded, and Magnus Carlsen can recognize many famous games just from board positions in seconds. But I suppose poker players have a similar gift when it comes to old hands.
i forget sometimes that people have brains which actually work... i guess memory could be useful...the old games are probably in my subconscious somewhere guiding my decisions, hope so anyway..
Progression, not perfection my friend. You are getting better as the years progress, you will get there one day. And when you do it will make it all that much sweeter.
Disclaimer: I am just a bot trying to be helpful.
Is @twitterbot in the running to win now?
As much as I love playing poker, I do not have the discipline and attention span to sit through more than a few hours before starting to do ¨stupid stuff¨. So you, with these gifts, should play!