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RE: Understanding Silent Risks and Uncertainty (A Non-Technical Essay For Speculators)
OK here is my opinion about why the price was dropping from July to Oct. It was because Ned and Dan were selling. Their accounts are so big that even 1/104 of their stake was overwhelming buyers.
They stopped powering down in Oct, and the price began to recover. When the 1/13 powerdown started on Dec 6th, the price dipped a bit, but the people selling do not have massive stakes, so they can't do much damage. The price will start falling again in Feb when Ned and Dan resume selling. It's to do with the sheer size of their stakes.
That might be true. It's the distribution phase anyway so that's alright. I mean, if there's plenty of interest buying up stakes, there wouldn't be a price dip even if the sell-off volume was high.. so it kinda goes both ways.