Patterns of Society. How Permaculture can prevent overpopulation of the planet.
▲ Village Homes, Davis, California. A Permaculture urbanisation with USA standard suburb population density.
Patterns of Society.
In Permaculture we talk about that overpopulation of the planet can be prevented if all humans are provided with clean air, healthy food, comfortable housing and sheltering/nurturing community. These securities are all environmental factors, that unknowingly, automatically and naturally control the population not only of humas, but also of animals and microorganisms. We are talking here about a universal way mother nature organizes things and as we are part of nature we are also part of that rule or law. When necessary resources are plentyful behaviour completely changes from when they are scarse. Our behaviour, as the behaviour of animals or microorganisms change in reslation to resources.
Rules of this Pattern.
A life in distress in relation to the environmental factors from above leads a species unknowingly to a higher production rate.
In a nutshell: Low resources = High fertility.
The flip side of that concept says that an over supply in relation to the environmental factors from above leads a species unknowingly to a lower production rate.
In a nut shell: Over supply of ressources = Low fertility.
But right in the middle there is a wide zone of adequate resources, where reproduction mechanisms are set to a level of population preservation. It is exactly the zone we talk about in Permaculture. It is where every individual has elemental access to clean air, healthy food, comfortable housing and a sheltering/nurturing community.
In a nut shell: Adequate ressources = stabile preservative fertility.
Actual World Population.
No I would ask you to please have a look at the following graphs. They are all taken from worldometer.info.
▲ Here you see the overall world population in absolute numbers from 1400 until predicted 2050.
▲ And here you see the world yearly growth rate plotted from 1951 till 2020 into the future.
Read Numbers with Rules of Patterns of Society.
If we now take natures inherit rules of Low resources = High fertility // Over supply of ressources = Low fertility // Adequate ressources = stabile preservative fertility and analyze the graphs above, would that mean that we went through a very rough time where we were not provided with all that goodness we needed and reacted with very high fertility? But would it also mean, that whilst this trend is beginning to increasingly lean towards lower growth and the 2050 absolute numbers seem to stabilize, would that mean our future situation will become the desirable Permaculture state of "Adequate ressources = stabile preservative fertility"? I definitely think so. We can not deny taht bad things are happenig in the world, but I still believe 100% that solutions are being applied through a rapidly growing world wide grass root movement, making this planet a healthy place for body, mind and soul to be around.
What are your thoughts on this?
Thank you for listening.
Moritz
I first heard about the relationship of population growth with stability / resources in an interview with Geoff Lawton. It had never occurred to me before so it was quite eye opening but at the same time it makes perfect intuitive sense! I agree with your theory that stability can be achieved with adequate resources and even abundance. That would be an ideal middle ground. Although I think with permaculture we can achieve abundance, but even with abundance we can learn to use only what we need having more appreciation for what we have, being less selfish and sharing the rest with each other or back with nature.. and therefore abundance = adequate as you stated, instead of over supply. I am idealistic that it's possible but not so optimistic that this would be achieved globally anytime soon! But we can do it in the home and community level :)
Dear @sagescrub.
I also learnd about these connections through Geoff, as he was my teacher for my 2017 7 months online PDC. The whole course was the ride of my life!
About your concerns:
In 32 years we have 2050 and 10 billion people on earth and I think in that time we will be very very close to a global permaculture solution. We will have been through so much instability and our current systems will have been close to crashing or collapse so often, that out of every instability moment more and more people and of course also enterprises will switch over to sustainable permacultural approaches. Some becauese of the new world they want to build and some because they want their money safely invested. I guess it is a natural behaviour of us humans to learn from our mistakes and in the global community, communicating via internet our local mistakes are having big impact on solutions across the planet.
Wow I really hope you are right! I am also idealistic about our future but I don't see the passion for permaculture solutions in the desire of mainstream ideals. I think if it does happen the shift will likely be when technology makes it easy for a culture to adopt green ways of living, so that it does not take any effort for the masses. If that were possible a shift would happen because it would be the right thing and also it would be a fad. Then if the masses shifted to permaculture through convenience a fundamental shift of ethics could follow. That's the most likely way this would happen in my opinion, but I'd like to be wrong and the masses gain a more active interest in sustainability!
Very interesting, this rule of nature makes a lot of sense and I had never heard it before. Awesome post!
Thank you wisewoof.
I think this is one of the more unknown principles of nature and well worth spreading. I agree that it explains a lot. Makes all of the sence in a way. Thank you for sharing!
cool blog.. i upvoted and followed you.. do the same for me and we could help each earn
I do not think there would be an "equilibrium population" point in time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth
Yes, the growth rate is slowing, but the total population won't stop growing by itself.
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/346/6206/234
We humans are just like any other animal, we'll exploit a stock of energy until it's depleted and the move over in search of other stocks, managing with the level of current flow of energy.
So what I expect is some sort of cataclysmic event. Too many people too close leads to war, epidemics, zombies :) all sorts of problems.
It might be a slow transition, like some disease that cripples reproduction, or a fast crash, like a 3rd WW. But it must happen, else all our grand-grandchildren are doomed to live on an exhausted, overpopulated planet. That's not a live worth living.
Holy shmunck @bobydimitrov! What dark visions you have!
I must say that I was there as well, but Permaculture tought me so many good lessons that I look very optimistic into the future. And especially into the future of my children and hypothetical grandchildren.. I do believe that we have all the tools at hand and that a global grass root movement is turning things around. You and me and all of us together we fulfill a great change. And we do it very slowly but therefore also very persistent and lasting.
Why would that be a dark vision? It's the same process in nature! Figs have bumper year in the tropics, the fruit bats population increases. The monkeys living in urban setting in India give birth to twins twice as often - ample food source!
I think I commented on another post of yours with the Holmgren's 4 scenarios and a lengthy interview with him? I wouldn't want to repeat what's already been beautifully explained.
Two troubling facts. Permaculture is so niche right now, it's not even on the radar. Even globally massive changes, like the multi-billion investments in renewable energies are just a tiny drop in a huge barrel of oil.
Check that report out: https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/key-world-energy-statistics.html and also the study in my previous post.
How would you like to have 20 families living full time in shacks on your beautiful property? We're talking 10 billion in our lifetime. City centers swallowing up small towns and villages. Currently, there's no plausible incentive whatsoever to go back to the land, for most people. I deal with this daily - one of the things I spend time on is to inspire locals to move out of the big cities and go neo-rural or neo-agrarian or whatever the latest trend word is.
Here's another read for you:
https://books.google.bg/books?id=3SghZt0SgAgC&pg=PA150#v=onepage&q&f=false
Don't get me wrong, I want nothing more than a slow, peaceful transition to a regenerative lifestyle. But if you've studied history (and I did for 12 years), you'd know that's not how overstretched civilizations end - like in a retirement home... It's always like a punk festivale, lots of chaos and tons of damage and nobody remembers nothing on the next day!
Dear @bobydimitrov I will have to go back and check on the Holmgren vieo you sent me. I did not watch it yet.
I was commenting on the war, epidemics, zombies...
Of course we have great tasks to tackle, yet I am still extremely optimistic and I even think it will be a piece of cake. Like the solutions will come to us, we will not even have to look for them. Well, the solutions are here already, but we will adabt them into our life so quickly and easily, you will see.
And 10billion will be fine on the planet. No problem there. And it also does not mean, that 20 families have to live in sheds on our properties, and if that is what is nacessary, by all means :) We will all live an abundance and beautiful cob houses :D
People who are happy in the cities should be happy there. No need to go neo-rural or neo-agrarian if you can go neo-urban-hipster-farming ;) No idea how you would call that. We will have to produce much more food much closer to the dense city centers anyhow.
Thank you for your input man and these lines are worth gold:
Much appreciated!
Moritz