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RE: How soon before Saudi Arabia's financial reserves run out?
If your scenario is correct, then what's not like? An oppresive and authoritarian regime comes to the end of its life. I guess the only worry is: what will replace it?
My scenario will only come to pass if the oil price stays low for the next couple of years.
As to what will replace it - uprisings in the Middle East have only gone wrong because Saudi interfered and financed interference - for example ISIS is saudi funded and if it didn't exist neither Iraq nor Syria would be having problems. If there is no-one with the money to interfere, then I guess it will get resolved pretty fast according to what locals want.